University of Louisiana-Lafayette
at
Western Kentucky University
4:00 PM EST
I edited this to take out the final score prediction. I dont want to offend any ULL fans with any prediction as I clearly did. I think this will be a fun and unpredictable game as many of the Sun Belt games have been this season. I respect the ULL program and have them in top 10 of non big 6 teams. I hope that by taking out the prediction that I can get a good dialogue from both sides about the game.
Running Backs: WKU is led by senior running back Bobby Rainey who has 704 yards rushing on the season, good for 20th in the nation. Rainey has run for over 100 yards in 5 of the 6 games in 2011. Rainey is also the leading receiver for the Hilltoppers with 25 catches good for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns on the season. Quarterback Kawaun Jakes is the only other rusher with over 100 yards on the season (120 on 45 carries). Fullback Kadeem Jones has scored 3 times on the ground in goal line situations. ULL’s rushing attack is a three headed monster led by freshman Alonzo Harris (82 for 354 yards). Junior quarterback Blaine Gautier is second on the team in rushing with 225 yards on 65 carries with 86 of those yards coming in the win over FIU. The third head is freshman Qyendarius Griffin who has 67 carries for 212 yards with a feeble 3.2 yards per carry on the season. Edge: WKU.
Receivers: WKU is led in pass catching by do everything running back Bobby Rainey. Rainey has caught at least 2 passes in every game this season and has put up at least 40 yards receiving in each of the last three games. Junior tight end Jack Doyle is second on the team in catches but actually has more receiving yards than anyone on the team. Doyle has 23 catches for 263 yards with a 100 yard performance versus rival MTSU. Doyle has 80 catches in his 3 year career for the Hilltoppers. Junior Marcus Vasquez and freshman Boe Brand are the only other receivers with at least 10 catches on the season though Vasquez was lost in the Indiana State game. ULL has 4 receivers that generate most of the receiving yards for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Junior Javone Lawson is the leading receiver with 27 catches for 452 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season. Lawson has caught at least 2 passes in every game this season with one 100 yard performance coming versus Troy. Junior Harry Peoples has 25 catches on the season including a 12 catch 176 yard performance versus FAU. Sophomore Darryl Surgent has 14 catches and came up big in the win versus North Texas with 2 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. Surgent is the deep threat with 3 catches over 40 yards on the season. Senior tight end Ladarius Green started the season slowly with 1 catch in the first three games but has become a big part of the offense since with 13 catches in the last four games including 3 touchdowns. Edge: ULL.
Offensive Line: ULL has an offensive line that has led the way for 127.4 yards on the ground per game while allowing 14 sacks on the season. The line has had trouble in the last three games making any openings for the running backs with 95 yards on the gound versus UNT, 117 versus Troy, and 130 on the ground versus FAU. The line is giving up a sack once every 13 pass attempts on the year. WKU has had trouble with its offensive line throughout the season but looks to have fixed some of the problems along the way. WKU runs for 152.8 yards per game on the ground with 204 on the ground versus FAU last week. The yards per carry is still below 4 so the holes are still not there but things are starting to look better. The line has only given up 9 sacks on the year after giving up 28 in 2010. They should easily get below that number when the season ends. Edge: Push.
Defensive Line: WKU is led on the defensive line by senior defensive end Jared Clendenin who has 25 tackles including 5.5 for loss to go with 2.5 sacks and an interception. Junior defensive tackle Jamarcus Allen has added 20 tackles including 3 for a loss and half a sack. Quanterus Smith and Bo Adebayo combine to bring in 32 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks to the defensive line. ULL brings an odd 3-3-5 defensive formation to this game. The Ragin’ Cajuns have 5 defensive linemen that have accumulated over 10 tackles. Bernard Smith (24 tackles, 9 for loss, 4.5 sacks), Derreck Dean (22 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks), Tyrell Gaddies (17 tackles, 5 for loss, 2 sacks), Cordian Hagans (14 tackles, 1 for loss), and Christian Ringo (13 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks) make up the main rotation for the Ragin’ Cajun defensive line. Edge: Push.
Linebackers: ULL lines up 3 linebackers in their 3-3-5 formation with all three linebackers putting up at least 30 tackles on the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns are led by senior Lance Kelley who has 59 tackles, good for 23 more than anyone else on the team. He also has 6 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, a recovered fumble, and 2 interceptions. Senior Devon Lewis-Buchanon plays the rover linebacker and has 34 tackles, 5 for loss, half a sack and a recovered fumble. Freshman Jake Molbert has found his way on the field as the 3rd linebacker and come up with 31 tackles, 2 for loss, and a sack on the season. WKU also puts three linebackers on the field the majority of the time. Sophomore Andrew Jackson leads the way with 63 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 interception, and a forced fumble on the season. Sophomore Xavius Boyd plays the WLB spot and has come up with 36 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 recovered fumble, 1 forced fumble, and blocked a punt in the FAU game leading to a game sealing touchdown run. Senior Ben Duvall has contributed 26 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks from the SLB spot. Freshman Terran Williams has looked good in spot duty mostly out of the nickel packages adding 11 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 sack on the season. Edge: WKU.
Secondary: ULL runs 5 defensive backs for a majority of the snaps per game. All 5 defensive backs have over 28 tackles making a majority of the big plays for the defense. Junior Jemarlous Moten leads the secondary with 36 tackles, 2 fumble recoveries, and an interception that was taken back 50 yards for a touchdown. Senior Dwight Bentley has 35 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 3 interceptions, 2 of which were returned for touchdowns. Senior Le’Marcus Gibson has added 31 tackles, 1.5 for loss and a blocked kick on the season. Senior Lionel Stokes has 29 tackles and 2 interceptions, 1 of which was returned for a score. Finally, senior Melvin White has 29 tackles, 4.5 for loss, half a sack, a forced fumble and an interception that he took 89 yards back for a score. This secondary gives up yards but also makes big plays in a very aggressive defensive scheme. WKU is led by senior defensive back Ryan Beard and his 31 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and 2 fumble recoveries. Sophomore Tyree Robinson adds 27 tackles, 2 for loss and a forced fumble as well as solid coverage from his cornerback position. Junior Kareem Peterson, redshirt freshman Cam Thomas, and senior Derrius Brooks combine to make up 65 tackles and a three interceptions including a couple of very good catches by Brooks. Sophomores Arius Wright and Kiante Young also have given support making a combined 32 tackles. The WKU secondary is not as dynamic as the ULL secondary but played well versus FAU and looks to be gelling at the right time. Edge: ULL.
Special Teams: ULL boasts a kicker with a 12-14 accuracy in junior Brett Baer. Baer is 8-9 from 20-40 yards and an impressive 4-5 from 40-49 yards this season. Baer also does the punting and averages 40.8 yards per punt with 17 of his 46 punts landing inside the 20 yard line and 8 going over 50 yards. The kickoff returns are non-descript averaging just over 22 yards per return with a long of 47 yards. The punt returns are more impressive with a 10.5 yard average on 19 returns with a long of 31 yards. WKU has quite possibly the worst kicking situation in the nation. As a whole, the WKU field goal kicking is 2-10 with 2 blocked kicks. Senior Casey Tinius is 1-8 with a 41 yarder the only made kick and 3 misses within 40 yards. Sophomore Monte Merrick is 0-1 with his miss from 34 yards. Freshman Jesse Roy is 1-1 with a make from 40 yards although he did miss an extra point attempt earlier in the season. Sophomore Hendrix Brakefield does the punting averaging 42.4 yards per punt with 10 landing inside the 20 yard line and 10 going over 50 yards. The WKU return team is averaging 8.5 yards per punt return with a long of 39 yards from freshman John Evans. The kickoff returns are at 26.7 per return with Evans taking one back 90 yards for a touchdown versus MTSU. Edge: ULL.
Coaching: ULL is in its first year with head coach Mark Hudspeth. Hudspeth was formerly the passing game coordinator for Mississippi State from 2009-2010. Before that he was the head coach at North Alabama where he had a 66-21 record in 7 seasons as head coach. WKU is in its second year with head coach Willie Taggert. Taggert went 2-10 in his first year with the program in 2010. Taggert formerly coached running backs at Stanford from 2007-2009 with Vikings running back Toby Gerhart his star pupil during those years. Before that, he was an assistant at WKU from 1999-2006. WKU is his first head coaching job. Edge: ULL.
Overall: This matchup was won by the Hilltoppers in dominant fashion in 2010 with the Hilltoppers winning 54-21 in their best performance of the 2010 season. Things have changed in Lafayette and first year coach Mark Hudspeth already has the Ragin' Cajuns bowl eligible with 5 games to go in the season. This is a much better team than the one that got destroyed by WKU in 2010. WKU is coming into this game with a 2 game winning streak which equal to the number of wins in 2009 and 2010 combined. The Hilltoppers are playing good football and have the ability to win this game. The biggest question mark for the Hilltoppers is how they will respond to a chance at ending the home losing streak.
Talk about being a homer. You have UL with the edge in 5 of your 9 categories and WKU with the edge in only 2 of 9. Let's try and be objective here. WKU like UNT is a one dimensional offense that revolves around one back. Stop him like UL did last Saturday and WKU doesn't have much of a chance. This article is a joke.
ReplyDeleteI respect that you have a differing opinion than me on the outcome of the game. This is why I usually do not pick scores, just give insight. Someone's feelings get hurt because I didnt pick their team to win. I believe it will be close going into the 4th quarter and you never know who will make the big play to bust it open late.
ReplyDeleteI find your preview to be pretty accurate in my opinion. UL is nothing like last year's team while WKU seems to be somewhat more improved. You would think the home team gets an advantage but that hasn't helped WKU so far this year.
ReplyDeleteI also think the 4th quarter will be where this game is decided.
I also see it to be close but after seeing WKU vs. MT game and Also WKU vs. Kentucky I dont believe WKU has the offensive or defensive stature that UL has in this particular matchup.
ReplyDeleteI can see the game being close but overall UL is conditioned alot better vs. the Sunbelt conference as a whole, this game will be blown away by the 2nd half And UL will be the victor here.
Nice article, while I disagree with some of your opinions, it seems like you did your homework. Save yourself the extra key stroke and take the extra L out, because our university has called itself ULL. Geaux UL Ragin' Cajuns...
ReplyDeleteJeremy, good write up. But I'm going to give UL the edge on the D-line, much deeper then WKU and leads the Sun Belt in sacks. After watching both teams, UL should cover in this game but it won't be easy against a Lance Guidry defense.
ReplyDeleteFair assessment, but considering all the match ups, WKU is not in a very favorable position this week. WKU did well against teams that have fairly soft run defenses that allowed Rainey to go off. When the cajuns have focused on stopping just the run, they have done VERY well, hell dunbar only went for like 56 yards. I think Rainey will do well, but I don't think he'll go over 115 yards in the game, and that won't be enough to win this game. The cajuns have scored 30 or more points in all but 1 game this season, they will do it again, and WKU just won't be able to keep pace.
ReplyDeleteUL does not run a 3-3-5, it's a 3-4. L'marcus Gibson has moved to outside LB.
ReplyDeleteWKU's D-line is also deep. There is a host of DT's that have seen playing time at one point or another and 5 in the rotation. On top of that, there are 3 DE's that could start and only 2 spots available. To suggest that WKU is not as deep is ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteNice job. From your breakdown it looks like UL is the dominant team. Pretty confident the Cajuns ruin homecoming
ReplyDeleteWKU dang.
ReplyDelete