For anyone that previously missed my rankings of the 54 teams in the MWC, MAC, WAC, CUSA, Sun Belt, Army, Navy, and BYU, here it is.
55. UCF--With
the sanctions on the program, UCF will not be put into the weekly ranking.
54. UTSA--With
a 2011 schedule that saw no FBS teams, UTSA struggled to a 4-6 record with
their best win coming versus future Sun Belt team Georgia State.
53. South Alabama--The Jaguars went 6-4 last season facing a FCS schedule that also
saw trips to North Carolina State and Kent State. USA held their own versus
Kent State only losing by 8 points. The best win of last season was over UTSA
in overtime.
52. Texas State--The Bobcats faced a FCS schedule with Texas Tech and Wyoming being
their FBS opponents. Those games were disasters losing a combined 95-20 in
those games. The Bobcats finished 6-6 with a season ending loss to Sam Houston
State.
51. Massachusetts--The Minutemen played a FCS schedule that also included a trip to
in-state foe Boston College. The Boston College game was a blowout losing
45-17. The Minutemen struggled to finish the season losing 4 of their final 5
games to finish 5-6.
50. New Mexico--The Lobos went 1-11 last season with their only win coming versus
UNLV. New Mexico lost 8 of those games by 20 points or more.
49. Florida Atlantic--The Owls went 1-11 in 2011 with their only win coming versus UAB.
FAU was shut out 3 times and failed to even record a single first down in a
game versus Michigan State.
48. Akron--The
Zips went 1-11 last fall with their only win coming versus FCS' Virginia
Military Institute. The Zips lost by 20 or more points in 7 games on the
season.
47. Memphis--The
Tigers went 2-10 last fall with 6 losses by 20 points or more. One of the two
wins was versus FCS opponent Austin Peay.
46. UNLV--The
Rebels struggled to a 2-10 season in 2011 with 8 losses by 20 points or more.
Both win were unexpected versus Colorado State and Hawaii. The Rebels lost
41-16 to FCS opponent Southern Utah.
45. UAB--The
Blazers went 3-9 in 2011 with 6 straight losses to start the season. UAB won 3
of their final 6 games but lost all momentum with a season ending loss to FAU
giving the Owls their only win of the season.
44. Tulane--The
Green Wave went 2-11 in 2011 getting to play an extra game with a road trip to
Hawaii to end the season. The Green Wave lost 6 games by 20 points or more
including a 73-17 thrashing by the hands of the high flying Houston Cougars.
43. Middle Tennessee--The Blue Raiders went 2-10 with wins versus Memphis and Florida
Atlantic, a duo of teams that went 3-21 last fall. 6 of the 10 losses were by
20 points or more with the Blue Raider defense giving up 20 points or more in
11 of 12 games.
42. Central Michigan--The Chippewas went 3-9 in 2011 with a head scratching win over MAC
champion Northern Illinois. The Chippewas lost 6 games by 14 or more points
capped by a 44-14 drubbing by rival Western Michigan.
41. North Texas--The Mean Green went 5-7 with alternating wins and losses for the
final 8 games of the year. There is slight reason for optimism with all 4
conference losses coming versus the top teams in the Sun Belt. The bad news is
that none of the 4 games were particularly close affairs so North Texas has a
hill to climb to compete in the Sun Belt.
40. Rice--The
Rice Owls went 4-8 in 2011 with the best win on the schedule versus a not so
good Purdue team. 5 of the 8 losses were by 20 or more points including giving
up 73 points to Houston in a 73-34 loss.
39. Idaho--The
Vandals struggled to a 2-10 season last fall with a killer 6-game losing streak
right in the middle. The Vandals may have some positives to look at in 2012
simply for the fact that 4 of the 9 losses were by 7 or fewer points. The
offense must score more points after only averaging 20.3 last fall while giving
up 33.3 points per game.
38. Buffalo--The
Bulls went 3-9 in 2011 during a season that reminded many of the old days where
Buffalo was one of the worst teams in the country. Of the three wins, one came
versus 1-11 Akron, another came versus FCS opponent Stony Brook, and the third
came as a stunner beating MAC runner up Ohio 38-37. 6 of their 9 losses were by
14 or more points.
37. Army--The
Black Knights combined the worst passing attack in the nation with the best
rushing attack but were unable to have a second straight bowl season
falling to 3-9 in 2011. Army played a tough schedule with 6 bowl teams to play
but lost all 6 with a 3-point loss to San Diego State being the only close
game. The 2012 schedule is slightly easier but it will be very difficult for
the Black Knights to become bowl eligible again this fall.
36. San Jose State--The Spartans had a solid 2011 season going 5-7 but were devastated
by two separate 3-game losing streaks in the season. The 5 wins may have been
more of a product of their schedule last fall as all 5 wins came versus teams
with losing records. The Navy, Hawaii, and Fresno State wins were marred by all
three teams having down years.
35. Colorado State--The Rams started 2011 winning 3 of 4 games including an overtime
win over Utah State. After the great start, CSU went downhill quickly losing
their final 8 games by an average margin of 36-20 with a 63-13 drubbing by the
hands of Boise State. The Rams will struggle to beat their 3 wins of 2011 with
a new coaching staff in 2012.
34. Troy--After
an impressive 6-year reign as the Sun Belt Champs, the Trojans fell badly in
2011 with a 3-9 record. Troy again had a good passing game but the inability to
run the ball, score regularly, or stop anyone from scoring landed them near the
bottom of the Sun Belt. With a week 2 matchup versus Louisiana, the Trojans
will find out quickly that climbing back up the Sun Belt is not an easy task.
33. New Mexico State--The Aggies were a very much improved team in 2011 going 4-9 with 2
other losses coming by 6 or fewer points. The defense was a letdown giving up a
staggering 36.8 points per game while the offense could only muster 24.5 per
game. With a tough non-conference slate this fall, it will be hard for the
Aggies to improve to any more than 5 wins.
32. Miami (OH)--The RedHawks went 4-8 in 2011 but endured a three game losing
streak to start the season and another to end the season. In between Miami (OH)
went 4-1 with the only loss coming to Toledo. With an easier 2012 schedule,
anything fewer than 5 wins would be a disappointment for the RedHawks.
31. Louisiana-Monroe--The Warhawks seemed to be right on the cusp of getting to that
elusive .500 record last fall. With 6 of their 8 losses coming to bowl teams
and another loss to a 7-5 team, the Warhawks only had one loss that was
unexpected. With an easier non-conference schedule this fall, ULM could be the
Sun Belt team to watch this year.
30. Kent State--The Golden Flashes looked very bad early in the season starting
1-6 and being outscored 28-10 during that portion of the schedule. Kent State
rebounded and went 4-1 in the final 5 games with their only loss coming to a
very talented Temple squad to end the season.
29. UTEP--UTEP was not a bad team in 2011 but the
Miners were not good. UTEP was right in the middle nationally offensively
scoring 26.6 points per game, good for 62nd best in the country. The Miners
were held to 14 points or fewer in 2 games. The defense was torched against
some very good offenses last fall. The Miner defense gave up 40+ points in 4
games last fall and gave up 30.3 points per game ranking them 86th nationally.
28. Hawaii--Hawaii followed the traditions set from
the June Jones years and were a hard to stop air offense that could not stop
anyone on defense. The Warriors threw for over 300 yards per game but were the
7th worst rushing attack in the country. Defensively, the Warriors gave up 30
or more points 6 times and every opponent scored at least 14 points on them.
The defensive issues must be figured out if the Warriors want to go bowling
again in 2012.
27. Ball State--Ball State started 2011 with a 5-3
record including losses to 2011 bowl teams South Florida, Oklahoma, and Temple.
The final 4 games saw the Cardinals fall flat with 3 losses in 4 games, albeit
against three bowl teams. The problem for Ball State is that they beat who they
were supposed to be and lost to who they were supposed to lose to. With an
out-of-conference schedule that should leave them at 2-2 the Cardinals must be
one of the big three of the MAC; Toledo, NIU or Ohio or risk running the table
in the MAC otherwise to earn a bowl berth this fall.
26. Eastern Michigan--In similar fashion to the week one
opponents from Ball State, Eastern Michigan was 5-3 at one point last fall with
fate in their own hands. Just like Ball State, the Eagles lost 3 of 4 to end
the season at 6-6. The Eagles must rely upon their talented running game with a
schedule that is not easy but is winnable. Road trip to Purdue and Michigan
State highlight the non-conference slate but EMU could easily go 3-1 non
conference and only have to win 4 conference games to be bowl eligible.
25. Navy--The triple option attack of Navy let
them down in 2011 with the Midshipmen struggling to a 5-7 record that saw them
go on a 6-game losing streak. During that losing streak, the Midshipmen lost by
an average of 39.5-26.5. The Midshipmen had the ability in game 11 to salvage a
chance at going for a winning record versus Army but lost to San Jose State
27-24 and doom Navy to sitting at home during bowl season. With a lightened
schedule that includes a trip to Ireland to start the season versus Notre Dame
and a week 2 matchup versus Penn State, the Midshipmen should bounce back and
go bowling again this fall.
24. East Carolina--East Carolina again had a very strong
passing attack but failed to perform running the ball condemning the Pirates to
a 5-7 record and no bowl. The defense improved from 2010 but still left gaping
holes for opponents to exploit conceding 32.3 points per game, good for 23rd
worst in the nation. The Pirates pride themselves with a difficult
non-conference slate annually with South Carolina, North Carolina, and Navy all
on the schedule. Virginia Tech is replaced with Appalachian State giving the
Pirates a bit of a break. A return to bowl form is possible this fall.
23. Bowling Green--The Bowling Green Falcons struggled to a
5-7 record in 2011 that was capped by two mid-season 3-game losing streaks. The
Falcons were right on the cusp in some of the losses with 3 of the 7 losses
coming by a touchdown or less. One-point losses to Wyoming and Ohio were both
huge losses. If the Falcons can get by a tough opening stretch to start the
season with games at Florida, Toledo, and Virginia Tech, then a winning record
is very possible for Bowling Green.
22. Air Force--Air Force had an up and down 2011 season
that saw the Falcons win versus every team they were expected to be and lose
versus every team that was better than them. Every team that Air Force lost to
was a 2011 bowl team headed by Boise State. 2012 sees Air Force with a much
easier schedule that no longer has Notre Dame, Boise State or TCU. The Falcons
could work this schedule to 10+ wins with a bowl win this fall.
21. Wyoming--The Wyoming Cowboys pulled off an
interesting feat in 2011. The Cowboys went 8-5 but were outscored by 1.7 points
per game on the season. The Cowboys lost to 5 bowl teams in Nebraska, Utah
State, TCU, Boise State, and Temple last fall. 2012 could be a good year for
Wyoming with only three scary road games on the schedule (Texas, Nevada, Fresno
State). Getting Toledo, Air Force, Boise State, and San Diego State all at home
could end with the Cowboys going 2-2. Another 8-win season is expected in
Laramie.
20. Western Michigan--The Western Michigan Broncos used a
passing game that averaged 337 yards per game in 2011 to make it to a bowl game
and a 7-6 record last fall. The Broncos were the 18th ranked scoring offense in
2011 with 35.3 points per game but allowed 28.7 points per game on the season.
With the return of Alex Carder and his 7234 career yards and 61 touchdowns,
everyone expects the Broncos to make a major move for a division title this
fall.
19. Marshall--Marshall was an up and down team that
got up to beat Southern Miss, Louisville, and Florida International but failed
to beat the top teams they faced otherwise. Marshall has a much easier schedule
in 2011 with Virginia Tech replaced by Western Carolina and Louisville replaced
by an average Purdue team. With home games versus Tulsa, UCF and Houston, this
could be a very good year for the Thundering Herd.
18. San Diego State--The San Diego State Aztecs were hoping
for great things in 2011 with an upperclassman dominated roster. The Aztecs
were good versus the teams they were expected to beat capped by wins over Air
Force and Army. When it came to playing the cream of the crop, the Aztecs could
not get it done losing to Michigan, TCU, Wyoming, Boise, and
Louisiana-Lafayette. All 5 of those teams were in bowl games in 2011. Despite
the loss of important players, SDSU should do well with a significantly
weakened schedule that replaces Michigan with Washington and no TCU.
17. Louisiana-Lafayette--The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
were the surprise team of the Sun Belt in 2011 with a 9-4 record and appearance
in the New Orleans bowl. The Ragin' Cajuns started strong with wins in 6 of
their first 7 games before losing 3 of their final 5 regular season games. UL
ended the season with a last second win versus San Diego State. With
non-conference games at Oklahoma State, home versus Tulane, at Florida, and
home versus Lamar: the Ragin' Cajuns should go 2-2 out of conference. UL does
get WKU, FIU, and Arkansas State at home in what is an interesting season for
the Ragin' Cajuns.
16. Utah State--The Utah State Aggies went 7-6 in 2011
with 5 of their losses coming in a disastrous 2-5 start to the season. The Aggies
won their next 5 games to get to 7-5 with a bowl game versus Ohio. The Aggies
lost 24-23 to Ohio to end at 7-6. Utah State lost all 6 games by 10 or fewer
points with 2 one-point losses. The Aggies must play better defense after
giving up nearly 28 points per game last fall. There are 4 tough games on the
schedule (Utah, @Wisconsin, @BYU, @La. Tech) but 5 games that are almost
guaranteed wins. Games versus Colorado State, San Jose State, and New Mexico
State will decide how the Aggies finish this fall.
15. Fresno State--The Fresno State Bulldogs went 4-9 in
2011 in a disappointing season that saw long time coach Pat Hill lose his job.
Fresno State was young last fall and look to be the team to make the biggest
jump in 2012. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for over 3500 yards in his first
year as a starter and is expected to be all-conference this fall in the
Mountain West. Fresno does have a tough schedule with trips to Oregon, Tulsa,
Boise, and Nevada but should go bowling with a significant improvement in wins
in 2012.
14. Western Kentucky--The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers went
7-5 in 2011 to give the Hilltoppers their 1st winning season as a member of the
FBS. The Hilltoppers were coming off of 0-12 and 2-10 seasons and lost their
first 4 games of the season including an embarrassing loss to FCS team Indiana
State, 44-16. With an 0-4 schedule in hand and a trip to rival MTSU, WKU came
up with a win in double overtime to start a streak in which the Hilltoppers won
7 of their next 8 games with the only loss coming to national runner-up LSU in
Baton Rouge. While losing their biggest offensive weapon in running back Bobby
Rainey, the Hilltoppers still return starters all over the field. This could be
the time for the first bowl berth for WKU since its jump to the FBS.
13. Florida International--The Florida International Golden
Panthers went into 2011 as the odds-on favorite to win the Sun Belt. FIU
started strong with three wins before losing 4 of 6 games to put them at 5-4
after the loss to WKU. Another 3-game winning streak salvaged the season and
earned the Golden Panthers another bowl at 8-4. FIU lost to Marshall 20-10 in
the bowl game. This FIU team is senior oriented and big things are expected out
of the Golden Panthers in 2012.
12. Southern Methodist--SMU started the 2011 season with great
expectations to make noise nationally. Everything went wrong in the season
opener in which the Mustangs were thrashed 46-14. SMU turned things around with
a 5-game winning streak that saw SMU beat nationally ranked TCU in overtime.
The Mustangs again fell to earth losing 4 of 5 games before ending the season
on a 2-game winning streak. The Mustangs have a Texas heavy schedule that
includes 9 of the 12 games in the state of Texas with trips to Baylor, UTEP and
Rice in addition to their home games. This could be a special year for the
Mustangs.
11. Nevada--The Nevada Wolfpack looked good against
the bad teams while struggling against the top opponents in 2011. Of the 6
losses by Nevada, 5 came versus 2011 bowl teams including Oregon, Boise State,
and Southern Miss. The Wolfpack have an easier non-conference slate that starts
with a tricky trip to underachieving California followed by a home game versus
South Florida. If the Wolfpack can get by those games, the season ending game
versus Boise State could be a game Mountain West game for the ages.
10. Northern Illinois--The Huskies are coming off of one of the
best few years of football ending with the graduation of record setting
quarterback Chandler Harnish. The Huskies ended 2011 at 11-3 including an
impressive 9-game winning streak to end the season. Every time the Huskies get
counted out and told that it is someone else's turn to take control, NIU finds
a way to surpass expectations once again.
9. Houston--In similar fashion to the #10 ranked NIU
Huskies, the Houston Cougars start 2012 trying to replace a legend at
quarterback. Case Keenum departed the Cougars with 19,217 yards passing and 155
touchdowns in his career. Those numbers are nearly impossible to account for.
The Cougars did get a taste of life without Keenum as he missed nearly all of
the 2011 season with a knee injury. Houston went 5-7 and missed a bowl but were
able to find out how to handle the team Post-Keenum. The Cougars break in Tony
Levine who took over the team to win the Ticket City bowl and earn the head
coaching job with the departure of Kevin Sumlin.
8. Toledo--The Rockets were so close to making some
major noise in 2011 but missed out on several opportunities to make a name
nationally. Toledo ended the 2011 season at 9-4 with 3 of the 4 losses coming
by a combined 11 points. The Rockers were one of the most exciting teams in the
country with 42.2 points scored per game while allowing 31.7 points per game.
The Rockets were a part of games that ended with 63-60 and 66-63 scores in
consecutive weeks. The Rockets also scored at least 42 points in their final 6
games of the season. Toledo must figure out how to replace Adonis Thomas at
running back and Eric Page at wide receiver to prove they are worthy of their
high ranking to start the season.
7. Southern Miss--The Golden Eagles of Southern Miss were
9 points from a perfect season in 2011 with a 6-point loss to Marshall in game
2 as well as an inexplicable 3-point loss to bottom-dweller UAB in November. In
a continuing fashion of the top 10 teams, the Golden Eagles must replace a
10000 yard career passer in Austin Davis. In addition to key players lost to
graduation, the Golden Eagles must break in a new head coach. Coach Ellis
Johnson has head coaching experience at Gardner-Webb and the Citadel but no
head coaching work at the FBS level.
6. Tulsa--The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes are one of
the most decorated teams in the nation to not make it to a BCS bowl game during
its existence. Tulsa is always right on the verge of the top 25 but tend to
play a schedule that limits the chances of going undefeated and playing in an
Orange or Sugar bowl. 2011 was the perfect example with 3 games versus top 10
opponents in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State among their first 4
games of the season. The Golden Hurricanes ended the season with losses to #8
Houston and one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of the season in
BYU. Tulsa must also replace a starting quarterback in GJ Kinne who threw for
9472 yards in three seasons as a starter. Tulsa has a group of quarterbacks ready
to take the load and a system that is extremely quarterback friendly making the
Golden Hurricanes the easiest quarterback transition of the top 10 teams.
5. Arkansas State--Arkansas State was a very surprising
team in 2011. The Red Wolves came out of nowhere to go 10-3 with the first FBS
10-win season in school history as well as the team's first Sun Belt
championship. Quarterback Ryan Aplin led the team with 3588 yards passing and
588 yards on the ground but saw things finally come together with a defense
that gave up only 20.8 points per game. Coaching should not be as big of an
issue as at other schools for the simple facts that Hugh Freeze was only there
for 1 season and new coach Gus Malzahn is one of Freeze's best friends. The
offense may differ slightly but Malzahn will base things around Aplin and look
to give the Red Wolves back-to-back Sun Belt Championships.
4. Louisiana Tech--The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs were 8-5 in
2011 but were so close to a special season last fall. 4 of the Bulldog's 5 losses
were by 7 points or fewer with an overtime loss to SEC team Mississippi 26-20.
After a rough 1-4 start to the season, the Bulldogs won 7 games in a row before
losing to a very talented TCU team in the Poinsettia Bowl. With a
non-conference schedule that gets Houston without Keenum, a down Illinois team,
an average Virginia team, UNLV, and Rice; this could easily be a 10-win season
for the Bulldogs in 2012.
3. Ohio--The Ohio Bobcats were so close in 2011
to winning the MAC and having a chance at their first 11-win season in FBS
school history but could not hold a big lead versus NIU. The Bobcats return
all-conference nominee Tyler Tettleton at quarterback for a team that threw for
nearly 250 yards per game in 2011. The Bobcats were +8.4 in point margin and
return key players all over the field. With an opening game at reeling Penn
State and everyone watching, the Bobcats have a chance to gain national
attention in week one. Tricky games versus New Mexico State and at Marshall
come before a conference slate that does not include NIU or Toledo.
2. Boise State--The Boise State Broncos were one of the
most dominant teams in the nation last fall and came a single missed field from
playing for a national championship. The Broncos have to replace quarterback
Kellen Moore and running back Doug Martin who accounted for 59 total touchdowns
as a duo. Moore is gone after setting the national winning mark for starting
quarterbacks with 50 in his career. 2012 is no ride in the park for the Broncos
with a trip to East Lansing to face Michigan State opens the season. Boise
State also faces BYU in week 3 and has a trip to Southern Miss on October 6. A
step back looks likely for the Broncos in 2012, but the locals still expect at
least 9 wins for Boise State this fall.
1. Brigham Young--The Brigham Young Cougars ended 2012 at
10-3 with a win in the Armed Forces bowl over fellow top 10 team Tulsa. The
Cougars started badly with losing 2 of three games to start the season,
including a 54-10 loss to Utah. Things changed for the Cougars with a change at
quarterback to Riley Nelson. Once Nelson took control, the Cougars only lost 1
more game while scoring at least 38 points per game in 6 of the final 7 games
of the season. The Cougars start the season with a game versus Washington
State to start the season as well as games at Utah and Boise State that will
test just how good this BYU team is. The Cougars also face Notre Dame and
Georgia Tech on the road in what could be one of the hardest schedules in the
nation.
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