A look at the schools that are overlooked by the ESPNs of the world.


Sunday, October 21, 2012

Thoughts on the WKU-ULM matchup:




WKU
1.       WKU is one of the best teams in the nation when running and passing the ball almost evenly. The ULM defense could not keep up with WKU's offense when the pass and run was 50/50. ULM started the game with 8 in the box daring WKU to pass the ball. By WKU hitting early passes, ULM had to drop deeper and that allowed creases to form for the WKU running game. The WKU offensive line is very good and almost unstoppable when a defense has to play 6 on 6 in the box.
2.       When WKU gets a lead, they play very conservatively offensively. After WKU took the 28-7 lead over ULM in the second quarter, the 50/50 spilt of running and passing rose to somewhere in the 80/20 range. When WKU did pass with the big lead, they focused on screens that lost yardage and short 3-step drop passes.
3.       WKU quarterback Kawaun Jakes is at his best passing the ball out of a shotgun formation. When lined up under center, Jakes has a harder time reading the whole field and tends to choose a side that he will throw the ball before the snap. In the third quarter, Jakes was lined up under center and looked left the whole way with tight end Jack Doyle running a backside drag uncovered. That would have been a walk into the end zone for Doyle and possibly put the game away for WKU. After the score was tied under 5 minutes, WKU moved to nearly all shotgun with Jakes finding receivers all over the field and reading the entire defense rather than a single side of the field.
4.       WKU had trouble getting the play in on several occasions. The WKU offense is based on pre-snap shifts (usually 3-4 players) forcing defenses to react and tip their hand on coverage and blitzes. When the huddle is being broken with fewer than 10 seconds on the play clock, those pre-snap reads are gone giving the defense an advantage of disguising blitzes. I counted 4-5 plays that were stopped at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield for the sole face that the offense got to the line of scrimmage slowly and never saw the blitz coming.
5.       WKU had two game changing mental lapses at the end of the first half. Facing a 4th-and-1 late in the first half, WKU went for it and failed to make it giving ULM much better field position than if they punted. There are times to go for the kill and times to play the odds. The odds favor pinning ULM deep and forcing them to go the entire field to make the score.  Then facing a play with :08 seconds left in the half and out of field goal range, ULM decided to go for a hail mary type of play down 28-14. Before the snap, the WKU safety sprints to the line of scrimmage as if to blitz and the right side slot receiver ran a seam route with no one covering him. The blitz got to Browning just late allowing him to loft the ball up for the receiver to catch the ball for a touchdown to end the half. Aside from the head scratching decision to come with pressure that late in the half, the defense clearly wasnt ran right and gave ULM momentum going into the half as well as cutting the lead to a single score.
6.       The WKU defense is talented but has a habit of going for the big hit rather than the sound play allowing players to break tackles and gain more yardage. Sometimes it works in their favor and the big hit sparks some momentum but other times wanting the big hit so badly ends with a late hit call and a 15-yard penalty. That bit WKU on the kickoff return that predated ULM's first score and the final drive giving ULM 15 yards from the 23-yard line to the 38-yard line.
7.       The conservative playcalling of WKU on offense forced the defense to play much more than needed and the defense wore down in similar fashion to the UK game. By running and getting nearly nothing on 1st and 2nd downs, the Hilltoppers were faced with 3rd-and-long and didn't convert every time. Not only does the spread that ULM runs wear a defense down from pace but they way they run all over the field forces the defense to run 15 yards or more on every play. Over the course of a game that sees ULM dominate the time of possession in the second half, the defense is running on fumes by the end.

ULM
1.       The offense was out of sync in the first quarter and most of the first half. Browning was behind on several throws and late on some passes including the early interception by Dowling that Dowling baited Browning into throwing. As the game wore on, Browning's accuracy was much better and he was on point for the most part for nearly every pass late in the game.
2.       As an addition to point 1, I was impressed with the way Browning played but disappointed with his inability to throw a deep ball effectively. There were no passes completed that traveled over 15 yards downfield and many of his completions were crossing routes or flat routes that were easy completions due to legal picks from zigzaging receivers across each other's path. I really like him as a college quarterback but his skill set just does not match what is needed to be a successful quarterback on the NFL level.
3.       ULM was most successful when they got Browning out of the pocket with a run-pass option. Browning seemed to feast upon WKU when the Hilltoppers ran man defense and he was on the edge. Browning would get outside and force the defender to make a decision to either continue to cover the receiver or come after him and gaining easy yards the entire game like that. The 2-point conversion play to win the game was an example of Browning eluding containment and forcing defenders to make a choice.
4.       The coaching decision to force WKU to win the game passing the ball worked by giving up so many early points. The defense was shredded for 28 first half points but ULM kept putting 8 in the box to stop the run versus WKU. After gaining the 21-point lead, WKU stopped passing the ball playing right into the ULM defense's hands. Still stacking the box on 1st and 2nd downs and stopping the Hilltoppers for little or no gain allowed ULM to chip away at the lead and eventually tie the game up at the end.
5.       The offensive line was magnificent for the Warhawks Saturday. The Hilltoppers were held under 5 tackles for loss and only sacked Browning 2 times on the day. Whether WKU was trying to keep integrity for Browning runs or were just getting handled, the ULM offensive line gave Browning what seemed like days to make plays passing or running the football. The running game was non-existent but ULM did not even try to establish a rushing attack with anyone other than Browning.
6.       ULM took advantage of WKU miscues. ULM benefitted from a poor WKU decision to go for a first down late in the second half as well as a blown defense on the last play of the first half and put a score on the board to pull within 7 points. Many teams are given chances by opponents to get back into a game but ULM took that and ran with it in that situation. Late in the game, a bad snap by WKU ended up giving ULM the ball in WKU territory and the Warhawks used that field position to tie the game up at 28.
7.       While the decision to go for the win in overtime was a no-brainer, the fact that the ULM coaching staff went ahead and called took some guts. The Warhawks were on offense last and on the road in a hostile environment, they went for the score and got the win.

The only other bit of information that really caught my eye was with less than a minute left in the game and ULM kicking off, the Warhawks went with a squib kick that was recovered by Kiante Young. He broke loose around the corner and took it for a score but the referees blew the play dead (I never heard the whistle till he was down the sideline for the score) saying his knee was on the ground when he recovered the kick. It was a hard play to judge and I would have preferred for the referees to let the play run and then check it on instant replay. The way it was called being ruled down at the spot took the chance at a replay out of the hands of the officials. It still may have been ruled the same way but with such an important call on such an important play, I would have preferred to see it looked at with the referees letting the play finish out. 

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