Which Teams Have The Best Shot Of Going To The CUSA Title Game: The End Of Times

It is not yet the middle of November and we already seem to be down to the final three teams last in the Conference USA race. North Texas, Florida Atlantic, and Florida International are in control of their fates and two of the three teams will make up a surprising CUSA title game.

Think about that for a moment, this is the P5 equivalency of getting a Mississippi State/Kentucky matchup in the SEC title game. Notice that North Texas, FIU, and FAU have yet to play for the CUSA title since making the move from the Sun Belt.

Anyway, let’s take a look at the CUSA race heading into week 11. 

Conference USA East Division:

Contenders: FAU, FIU, Marshall (barely).

Pretenders: WKU, MTSU, Charlotte, Old Dominion.

• Florida Atlantic (6-3, 5-0 CUSA): The Lane Train had plenty of chances to derail, but beat WKU and Marshall in back to back weeks after destroying North Texas. This team is on a roll and benefiting from a weak overall conference to possibly take the title. Barring an epic collapse, they are still in the driver’s seat and could all but clinch the division title with a win over FIU in the Shula Bowl. The question then becomes when, not if, Lane Kiffin leaves for another job. Chance of winning the division: 55%.
• Florida International (6-2, 4-1 CUSA): Credit goes to the Panthers for coming through when all the chips were on the table. Anything less than sweeping Marshall and UTSA would kill their chances at a berth in the CUSA title game. Instead, they won both games and are a win versus Old Dominion from playing rival FAU with the east lead on the line. Of course, there is still a Thanksgiving week matchup with WKU to contend with, but just the fact that they have a real shot at the division title is nothing short of stunning. Chance of winning the division: 44%.
• Marshall (6-3, 3-2 CUSA): Let’s be honest. Marshall’s shot at winning Conference USA ended with back to back losses to FIU and FAU. They had a chance to take control of the race, but instead fell to third place and need tons of help. In addition to beating WKU, UTSA, and Southern Miss, they would need FAU to lose out and FIU to lose two of their final three games. I mean it is possible, but really? Chance of winning the division: 1%.

Conference USA West Division:

Contenders: North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss.

Pretenders: Rice, UTEP, UTSA, Louisiana Tech.

• North Texas (6-3, 5-1 CUSA): Yes, there are two other teams in the west with a shot to win the west, but the Mean Green is in excellent shape. First off, UNT holds tiebreakers over UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA, and Louisiana Tech. What that means is that all they have to do is not lose to both UTEP and Rice. A win in either game sends them to the conference title game. Okay, the division is all but sealed up at this point.  Chance of winning the division: 99%.
• UAB (6-3, 4-2 CUSA): We are officially down to hopes and prayers for the Blazers heading into week 11. Of course, they have to win out, but they also need North Texas to lose to both Rice and UTEP in order to jump them in the standings. On the bright side, winning out guarantees a second place finish and a pretty sweet bowl game. Hope is still alive, but a return season with a conference title was asking a bit too much anyway. Chance of winning the division: 0.5%.
• Southern Miss (5-4, 3-2 CUSA): If UAB is looking for a miracle, the Golden Eagles need one of the craziest endings in college football history to win the division. First, winning out is a given. Second, UNT has to lose to Rice and UTEP. Third, UAB has to lose one more game to fall a game behind in the standings. If all three of those things happen, then USM will represent the west. Settling for a second place finish is not a bad thing considering all of the quarterback issues during this campaign. Chance of winning the division: 0.5%.

Projected CUSA Title Game: North Texas at FAU.