Which Teams Have The Best Shot Of Going To The CUSA Title Game: The End Of Times

It is not yet the middle of November and we already seem to be down to the final three teams last in the Conference USA race. North Texas, Florida Atlantic, and Florida International are in control of their fates and two of the three teams will make up a surprising CUSA title game.

Think about that for a moment, this is the P5 equivalency of getting a Mississippi State/Kentucky matchup in the SEC title game. Notice that North Texas, FIU, and FAU have yet to play for the CUSA title since making the move from the Sun Belt.

Anyway, let’s take a look at the CUSA race heading into week 11. 

Conference USA East Division:

Contenders: FAU, FIU, Marshall (barely).

Pretenders: WKU, MTSU, Charlotte, Old Dominion.

• Florida Atlantic (6-3, 5-0 CUSA): The Lane Train had plenty of chances to derail, but beat WKU and Marshall in back to back weeks after destroying North Texas. This team is on a roll and benefiting from a weak overall conference to possibly take the title. Barring an epic collapse, they are still in the driver’s seat and could all but clinch the division title with a win over FIU in the Shula Bowl. The question then becomes when, not if, Lane Kiffin leaves for another job. Chance of winning the division: 55%.
• Florida International (6-2, 4-1 CUSA): Credit goes to the Panthers for coming through when all the chips were on the table. Anything less than sweeping Marshall and UTSA would kill their chances at a berth in the CUSA title game. Instead, they won both games and are a win versus Old Dominion from playing rival FAU with the east lead on the line. Of course, there is still a Thanksgiving week matchup with WKU to contend with, but just the fact that they have a real shot at the division title is nothing short of stunning. Chance of winning the division: 44%.
• Marshall (6-3, 3-2 CUSA): Let’s be honest. Marshall’s shot at winning Conference USA ended with back to back losses to FIU and FAU. They had a chance to take control of the race, but instead fell to third place and need tons of help. In addition to beating WKU, UTSA, and Southern Miss, they would need FAU to lose out and FIU to lose two of their final three games. I mean it is possible, but really? Chance of winning the division: 1%.

Conference USA West Division:

Contenders: North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss.

Pretenders: Rice, UTEP, UTSA, Louisiana Tech.

• North Texas (6-3, 5-1 CUSA): Yes, there are two other teams in the west with a shot to win the west, but the Mean Green is in excellent shape. First off, UNT holds tiebreakers over UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA, and Louisiana Tech. What that means is that all they have to do is not lose to both UTEP and Rice. A win in either game sends them to the conference title game. Okay, the division is all but sealed up at this point.  Chance of winning the division: 99%.
• UAB (6-3, 4-2 CUSA): We are officially down to hopes and prayers for the Blazers heading into week 11. Of course, they have to win out, but they also need North Texas to lose to both Rice and UTEP in order to jump them in the standings. On the bright side, winning out guarantees a second place finish and a pretty sweet bowl game. Hope is still alive, but a return season with a conference title was asking a bit too much anyway. Chance of winning the division: 0.5%.
• Southern Miss (5-4, 3-2 CUSA): If UAB is looking for a miracle, the Golden Eagles need one of the craziest endings in college football history to win the division. First, winning out is a given. Second, UNT has to lose to Rice and UTEP. Third, UAB has to lose one more game to fall a game behind in the standings. If all three of those things happen, then USM will represent the west. Settling for a second place finish is not a bad thing considering all of the quarterback issues during this campaign. Chance of winning the division: 0.5%.

Projected CUSA Title Game: North Texas at FAU.

Which Teams Have The Best Shot Of Going To The CUSA Title Game: Some Clarity Emerges

It wouldn't be another week of CUSA football without at least one major upset. This week, FIU surprisingly took care of Marshall while UAB snuck out with a win versus Southern Miss. All that did was strengthen the grips of North Texas and FAU on a trip to the CUSA title game. 

Back to back CUSA champion WKU was virtually eliminated from contention after giving up a second half lead in a loss to FAU. Let's see how Conference USA stacks up.

Conference USA East Division:

Contenders: FAU, FIU, Marshall, WKU (Barely).

Pretenders: MTSU, Charlotte, Old Dominion.

• Florida Atlantic (5-3, 4-0 CUSA): Either CUSA is really not very good this year or FAU figured things out after a road loss to Buffalo. They are the only undefeated team in the conference, but face a put up or shut up three-game stretch of the season with Marshall, La. Tech, and FIU on the slate. Win all three and the season finale versus Charlotte doesn’t even matter. A loss to La. Tech wouldn’t be that bad as long as they beat Marshall and FIU. A loss to Marshall or FIU could open the division for anyone to win. Chance of winning the division: 58%.
• Florida International (5-2, 3-1 CUSA): Surprise, surprise, the Panthers are sitting in second place and only one game from a bowl berth. Winning out would give them a 7-1 CUSA record and tiebreakers over FAU and Marshall. There is still a tough game upcoming as UTSA travels to Miami in a virtual division winner elimination game. Only after that win can FIU even think about being the East Division representative. Until they are eliminated, I will not count FIU out. Chance of winning the division: 22%.
• Marshall (6-2, 3-1 CUSA): The Thundering Herd blew a chance to effectively eliminate FIU from the race in a 41-30 loss. What that did was force Marshall into needing a perfect final four games to have any hope of a division title. They have FAU and WKU in the next two weeks with a shot to earn a tiebreaker over both and give WKU a fatal third CUSA loss.  Even going 4-0, they need some help in the form of an FIU loss to take the division. Chance of winning the division: 19%.
• Western Kentucky (5-3, 3-2 CUSA): The Hilltoppers are on life support after blowing a lead versus FAU. That win means that FAU would need to lose three of their final four games to fall behind WKU. Winning out would give them the tiebreakers over FIU and Marshall, eliminating both teams from contention. Asking the only CUSA undefeated to lose three of four to end the season is quite a bit of a request. Chance of winning the division: 1%.

Conference USA West Division:

Contenders: North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA, Louisiana Tech.

Pretenders: Rice, UTEP.

• North Texas (7-1, 4-1 CUSA): Beat Louisiana Tech. As stated before, they are basically then West Division champs if they win over the Bulldogs. With that win, it would take losses in each of the final two CUSA games to keep from winning the division. A loss would send us into chaos as there would then be a multi-team tie at the top and the tiebreaker sheet would come out. Let’s not look at the silly tiebreaker sheet until we are absolutely forced to do so. Chance of winning the division: 65%.
• UAB (6-2, 3-2 CUSA): The only realistic shot for the Blazers is to win out and hope for North Texas to lose two games down the stretch, one to Louisiana Tech and one to either Rice or UTEP. Winning out would give them tiebreakers over Southern Miss, UTSA, and Louisiana Tech in addition to a one game lead over UNT. Not the easiest route to winning the division, but not entirely impossible. Chance of winning the division: 5%.
• Southern Miss (5-2, 3-2 CUSA): The Golden Eagles need to win down the stretch and get a bit of help. They hold tiebreakers over LA Tech and UTSA, but lose in tiebreakers to UNT and UAB. Basically, a win by LA Tech over North Texas and complete chaos is the most realistic route to Southern Miss winning the division. USM would still need UAB and to lose another game and North Texas to lose to either Rice or UTEP to clear out a few of the tiebreakers, but anything is possible. Chance of winning the division: 5%.
• UTSA (5-2, 2-2 CUSA): The Roadrunners, needing a bit of help to win the west, actually have the ability to affect the entire CUSA race in both divisions. All four of their November games are versus teams that still have a shot at winning their division. Win out and the Roadrunners eliminate UAB and LA Tech from contention. Then UTSA needs some help at they need at least one more USM loss and two losses by UNT before the season ends. Can anyone reliably expect Rice or UTEP to beat North Texas? Chance of winning the division: 10%.
• Louisiana Tech (4-4, 2-2 CUSA): Looking down and out not all that long ago, the Bulldogs may have the best shot at taking out North Texas. A win over the Mean Green followed by running the table could throw the division into a multi-team jumble at the top with LA Tech holding tiebreakers over UTSA and North Texas. They would still need some help from losses by UAB and Southern Miss down the stretch to head back to the CUSA title game. Chance of winning the division: 15%.

*It should be noted that if multiple teams (3+) end up in a tie, we are headed to the dreaded tiebreaker sheet and there are just too many possible scenarios to evaluate at this point without driving me crazy.*

Projected CUSA Title Game: North Texas at FAU (again)

Which Teams Have The Best Shot Going To The CUSA Title Game?

By Patrick M. McLeod - http://www.flickr.com/photos/misternaxal/1880129223/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7889392

Halloween week has descended upon college football, so now is as good of a time as ever to take a look at Conference USA standings and how things shaking out. It has been an interesting season to this point with multiple plot twists worthy of a blockbuster movie. Could you have imagined that FAU would look dominant in conference play while preseason west favorites UTSA and Louisiana Tech sit on the outside looking in at this point in the season?

Speaking of preseason favorites, which teams were picked by the media to take each division?

• College Football News: MTSU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)
• USA Today: WKU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)
• Athlon: WKU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)
• CUSA Media Poll: WKU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)

How do those predictions look at this point in the season?

East Division:

Contenders: FAU, Marshall, WKU, FIU (technically).

Pretenders: MTSU, Charlotte, Old Dominion.

• Florida International (4-2, 2-1 CUSA): The Panthers have been a bit of a surprise this season under Butch Davis. They have to only win two of their final six games to become bowl eligible, an accomplishment for the ages considering the last few years. That aside, FIU is still in the running for the east with only one loss (MTSU) in conference play. They have yet to play the meat of their CUSA schedule with trips to Marshall and FAU while hosting Marshall, UTSA, ODU, and WKU. Already a game behind FAU and Marshall in the loss column, they would likely need to sweep their four remaining east opponents. Otherwise, it would take too many tiebreakers falling in their favor to have a shot at the division. Chance of winning the east: 1%.
• Western Kentucky (5-2, 3-1 CUSA): The Hilltoppers are an incredibly tough team to figure out. They are 5-2 and barring a letdown for the ages, will get to six wins and another bowl game. Their one loss in CUSA play was versus a west opponent, taking most tiebreakers from that specific game off the table. Running the table would give WKU yet another east division title, but they have FAU and Marshall sandwiched between a trip to Vanderbilt, making that goal just a bit harder. Lose to either FAU or Marshall and WKU is almost completely out of title game hopes, barring multiple teams finishing with the same record. Basically, sweep FAU and Marshall and the path is clear. Chance of winning the east: 20%.
• Florida Atlantic (4-3, 3-0 CUSA): Credit has to be given to Lane Kiffin and company for turning a team that looked in trouble after week four into a potential division winner. Sitting at 3-0 after a big win over North Texas, the Owls face a make or break section of their season. Trips to WKU and Louisiana Tech sandwich a visit from Marshall and the Owls could be cruising to a division title if they go 3-0. Winning two of three would almost certainly put them within reach of the title if those two wins are against WKU and Marshall. That would give them the tiebreaker over both teams with only FIU and Charlotte left on the schedule. TL;DR: Beat WKU and Marshall and you will almost certainly win the division. Chance of winning the east: 45%.
• Marshall (6-1, 3-0 CUSA): After an ugly win over Charlotte to start CUSA play, the Thundering Herd have rolled to a 3-0 conference record and overall bowl eligibility. They will be heavy favorites over FIU on Saturday, knocking FIU out of division title contention and setting up a huge four-game end to the season. With UTSA and Southern Miss still left from the west, while also facing WKU and FAU from the east, Marshall by far has the toughest end to the season. As with WKU and FAU, pulling the sweep over the other two would put them in a great spot to win the division and head to the CUSA title game. A loss to either opens the door to losing via tiebreaker, so we have to wait until October 11 to figure out Marshall’s true fate. Chance of winning the east: 34%.

West Division:

Contenders: North Texas, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, UTSA, UAB (technically).

Pretenders: UTEP, Rice.

• Louisiana Tech (3-4, 1-2 CUSA): Despite sitting at 1-2 in conference play and a devastating loss to Southern Miss to rebound from, there is still hope in Ruston. As with any two-loss team, running the table is almost the only way to win the division. That includes beating Rice, North Texas, FAU, UTEP, and UTSA. Doing that alone would knock every other contender except UAB and Southern Miss from contention. La Tech would then need the Blazers to lose one game down the stretch and Southern Miss lose two games. Another long shot possibility. Chance of winning the east: 8%.
• UAB (4-3, 2-2 CUSA): I am not saying that the Blazers hopes of winning the division went up in smoke on Saturday, but basically they did. The first thing that has to happen is beating Southern Miss, Rice, UTSA, and UTEP. That would put them at 6-2 in the division, a game ahead of UTSA, and a tiebreaker winner over Southern Miss. In addition, they would need two losses by North Texas. That is a tough request considering UNT’s schedule down the stretch. Chance of winning the west: 1%.
• UTSA (4-2, 1-2 CUSA): Football is a game of inches and no truer is the case than with the Roadrunners. A play here or a tackle there and they are sitting pretty and rolling to a division title. Instead, they are sitting at 1-2 in CUSA play and need Southern Miss and North Texas to both lose 2+ games down the stretch. They also need to take care of business and beat UTEP, FIU, UAB, Marshall, and Louisiana Tech to end up at 6-2 in CUSA play. That is asking quite a bit and adding what they need from USM and UNT is almost asking the impossible. Chance of winning the west: 3%.
• Southern Miss (5-2, 3-1 CUSA): The Golden Eagles are the only team other than North Texas that has a high chance at winning the division. They have a very winnable final three games (UAB, Rice, Charlotte) before facing Marshall in the regular season finale. If North Texas loses down the stretch and is sitting one game behind USM, then the Marshall game becomes everything. A win would give them the west. I know it sounds sacrilegious, but Southern Miss fans must root for Louisiana Tech when they face North Texas on November 4. Chance of winning the west: 41%.
• North Texas (4-3, 3-1 CUSA): Considering they took one of the worst beatings in school history, hope is still alive for the Mean Green. Honestly, nearly everything else within division fell perfectly to give them a chance at the west division crown. They have played the hardest part of their in-conference slate and should cruise wins over Old Dominion, UTEP, and Rice. The game that could decide which team represents the east will be played on November 4 in Ruston, Louisiana. A win over the Bulldogs and a sweep of the dregs of the conference this year guarantees UNT a spot in the title game. Chance of winning the west: 47%.

CUSA title game prediction as of today (10/22/17): Marshall vs. North Texas. 

Conference USA Power Rankings (9/4/17)

It was an odd start to the season for CUSA as the elites struggled with inferior opponents, MTSU no showed versus Vandy again, and Marshall showed that you don’t always need an offense to win a game. With that said, let’s take a look at the CUSA power rankings.

1. Western Kentucky (1-0, 0-0): Sure, EKU is a rival, but the Hilltoppers looked a bit disinterested and looking ahead Saturday night. A win is a win and with Illinois, Louisiana Tech, and Ball State filling out a September slate, things will only get tougher for WKU.
2. Louisiana Tech (1-0, 0-0): It is hard to get up to play versus a vastly inferior opponent. The Bulldogs took care of business, but have quite a bit to work on before facing Mississippi State, WKU, and South Carolina in the next three weeks.
3. MTSU (0-1, 0-0): As usual, the Blue Raiders choked against their neighbors from Nashville. All you can really do is throw that game out the window and start new. Wins over Syracuse and Minnesota in the next two weeks could completely change the trajectory of the program this season.
4. Old Dominion (1-0, 0-0): It was an ugly game, but Old Dominion held off a tougher than expected Albany squad in week one. LaRussa showed flashes of brilliance and should have his spot cemented as a starter with his week one performance. Three turnovers cannot happen versus North Carolina and Virginia Tech if they want to pull an upset or two.
5. UTSA (0-0, 0-0): Weather kept the Roadrunners from playing in week one. They instead get to start their season with a trip to a Baylor squad smarting from a loss to Liberty in week one. If they can get this win, they could be looking at a possible 9/10 win season this fall.
6. Marshall (1-0, 0-0): I don’t even know what to make of the Thundering Herd. They cannot expect to score 21 non-offensive points every week. Until the offense proves they are improved from last season, Marshall sits in the middle of the CUSA pack.
7. Southern Miss (0-1, 0-0): There is hope for the Golden Eagles as they have found their quarterback in Kwadra Griggs. There were multiple chances for USM to beat Kentucky and they would have moved to #6 if they did, but they could not pull out the win. With Southern and ULM next on the slate, USM should start CUSA play at 2-1 overall.
8. North Texas (1-0, 0-0): The Mean Green took care of business in week one and beat the doors off Lamar as expected. Now, they have a real challenge with SMU and Iowa on the schedule before starting CUSA play with a visit from UAB.
9. UAB (1-0, 0-0): The Return got off to a great start in week one with a 38-7 win over Alabama A&M. The Blazers get into real FBS action in week two versus a solid Ball State squad, followed by Coastal Carolina. Five wins are possible for UAB this year.
10. Charlotte (0-1, 0-0): The 49ers hung around and had a chance to get within a score versus EMU, but could not put things together offensively in the 24-7 loss. Fix some mistakes and Charlotte could be battling for a bowl berth.
11. Florida Atlantic (0-1, 0-0): The Lane Kiffin era got off to a lackluster start versus a solid Navy squad. The players looked lost at times and the coaching staff looked ill prepared for the triple option of Navy. It could get ugly for the Owls in the next two weeks as they travel to #9 Wisconsin and Boston College comes to town.
12. UTEP (0-1, 0-0): The Miners were never going to compete with Oklahoma on the road. Forget that game. This week marks a matchup with Rice that could determine the worst team in Conference USA.
13. Florida International (0-1, 0-0): If Kiffin’s era got off to a lackluster start, the Butch Davis era started with a disaster. Playing rival UCF, the Golden Panthers are lucky that they didn’t give up 80 points. It was bad.
14. Rice (0-1, 0-0): With Stanford, Houston, Pitt, and Army making up the non-conference schedule, this could be the year that Rice goes 0-12. The best chances for the Owls to win a game might come in September as they travel to UTEP and host FIU.

Conference USA Week Two Review

Another week is in the books for the 2015 college football season with Conference USA going 4-9 with only one conference game (WKU-La. Tech) taking place. Let's take a look at the good, bad, and ugly of week two Conference USA football.

G5 Top Ten Leading Tacklers: Post-Week Two

Marshall, Akron, and Tulsa lead the way with 12 individuals making 21+ tackles in the first two weeks of the season. Lang of Marshall and Vigil of Utah State are the only two to break the 25 tackle barrier. By conference: Conference USA 3, Mountain West 3, MAC 2, American 4, Sun Belt 0, and Independent 0.

G5 Top Ten Receiving Yards: Post-Week Two

Tulsa is definitely showing off their air raid offense this season with two of their receivers in the top six nationally in receiving yards. Five G5 receivers have broken the 250 yard mark two games into the season. The MAC and American both have three players in the top ten with the Sun Belt (3), CUSA (1), and Mountain West (0) rounding out the top 10.

13 G5 over P5 Upset Opportunities

I have 13 games this week in which a G5 and P5 team square off with the legitimate shot of an upset. Do you agree or do you think I am way off base in seeing these games as upset opportunities? **Note: I am not picking all of the games as upsets, I only see them as distinct possibilities.**

Group Of Five Thursday Night Statistical Leaders

One day of FBS football is in the books and here is a look at the top 10 performers from the opening night games.

CUSA Week One Preview

With all CUSA members except for North Texas kicking off the season this week, let's take a look at each matchup and who will win.

Conference USA Players to Watch

There is lots of talent all over the board in Conference USA this year with some of the craziest offensive numbers as well as some of the better defensive players in the nation. Unsure of who to watch for in the conference this season, let's take a look and find out who should be noticed among CUSA this season.

2015 Conference USA Football Schedule

2015 Conference USA Football Schedule:

64 FBS to FBS transfers dot the CUSA landscape

Conference USA programs have been able to bring in players from other FBS programs on a regular basis to fill holes, give players second chances, and give players a chance to compete for playing time when that was not a possibility previously. 64 FBS to FBS transfers are currently on Conference USA team rosters with with five schools bringing in 5+ of those players.

Week One Thursday Night Games: My Predictions

Week One of the FBS season is only two weeks away and brings us 55 games involving G5 teams including six games of G5 versus G5 teams. Today I will predict all 13 Thursday night games.

Group of Five players on the Jim Thorpe Award watch list

Jim Thorpe Award watch list:

Group of Five players on the Mackey Award watch list

Mackey Award watch list:

Given annually to the most outstanding collegiate tight end, the award recipient is selected by vote of the John Mackey Award Selection Committee.

Conference USA football schedules

Conference USA Bowl Chances

Conference USA Bowl Chances

Conference USA recruiting 6/15/13

Conference USA has 41 commits from the class of 2014. Rice leads with 11 of the 41 commits while UAB, MTSU, FIU, and North Texas all have yet to officially secure a commit.