Sun Belt Power Rankings (9/5/17)

The Sun Belt featured close calls in week one. Arkansas State gave everything they could handle and the Sun Belt as a whole represented itself as a tough out for nearly any team in the nation.

1. Appalachian State (0-1, 0-0): You could make a case that Arkansas State looked like the best team in the Sun Belt in week one, but I will not hold a poor performance by the Mountaineers in week one against them. They have a chance to regroup and recover with a cupcake game versus Savannah State.
2. Arkansas State (0-1, 0-0): Wait, don’t the Red Wolves normally struggle in non-conference play before kicking it into gear in Sun Belt play? This group looks ready to contend with everyone, but must make it through a gauntlet that includes Miami (FL) and SMU.
3. Troy (0-1, 0-0): The Trojans had Boise State on the ropes at times, but could not string together enough offense to pull off arguably the biggest win in a very long time. With Alcorn State, NMSU, and Akron in the next three weeks, expect the Trojans to be halfway to bowl eligibility when they face #12 LSU.
4. Idaho (1-0, 0-0): The Vandals struggled a bit in a season opening win, but are still easily the fourth best team in the conference. They cannot afford to lose to an angry UNLV squad with a trip to Western Michigan on the horizon.
5. Louisiana (1-0, 0-0): I don’t even know how to describe Saturday night for the Ragin’ Cajuns. They were dominated in nearly every facet of the game, but got two kickoff returns for touchdowns and a stand at the end and got the win. Up next is a Tulsa team looking to prove their doubters wrong.  
6. New Mexico State (0-1, 0-0): Let’s be honest, after the third quarter, the Aggies never really had a chance to win over Arizona State. Still, they fought to the end, put up 31 points, looked respectable versus a PAC 12 program. If the defense is improved, they have a chance to get to six wins.   
7. South Alabama (0-1, 0-0): For a half, the Jaguars looked poised to beat a Mississippi team from the SEC for the second time in two years. Those hopes faded fast as they gave up 27 points in the third quarter and lost big to the Rebels. With Oklahoma State, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech still on the schedule before October, this could be a tough month for South Alabama.
8. Coastal Carolina (1-0, 0-0): The Chanticleers have to earn their way up the rankings, but more wins over FBS opposition will help the cause. They could hypothetically head into October 4-0 with winnable games versus UAB, Western Illinois, and ULM. They could also easily lose all three.
9. ULM (0-1, 0-0): Huge underdogs to Memphis, the Warhawks made things a bit more stressful before bowing down in the rain. Don’t expect Riley Ferguson to be held under 100 yards passing once again, so props to the ULM defense.  
10. Georgia Southern (0-1, 0-0): Look, I know they were playing Auburn, but 78 total yards is embarrassing. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt this early in the season. Up next is a matchup with FCS program New Hampshire.
11. Texas State (1-0, 0-0): The Bobcats won and that is all that matters. It was not pretty and Houston Baptist had chances, but a win is a win. Colorado, Appalachian State, UTSA, and Wyoming await the Bobcats to end September.  
12. Georgia State (0-1, 0-0): Getting dominated at home versus Tennessee State was not the way to open a new home for the program. There is talent on the roster, so hopefully, this is a blip on the radar like a loss two years ago to Charlotte that led to an eventual bowl berth.

Ten Mountain West Non-Conference Games To Watch:

Always full of compelling matchups including both the G5 and P5, the MWC knows how to schedule. Of course, Boise State leads this list with three mentions, but there are several others quality games like New Mexico-Tulsa and UNLV-Idaho that will keep the masses entertained. If you are willing to stay up late or catch a Friday night matchup, you will not be disappointed.

• Boise State at BYU (October 6): An annual series since the 2012 season, the Cougars and Broncos are destined to put on a show. Even if it is a 7-6 final like in 2012, it is a fun game that is worth the watch. Last season was a wild show with Boise State doing everything possible to give BYU the win before coming up with a blocked kick to hold on for the win. That turned into BYU’s only loss in their final nine games. The Cougars lost four games by a combined EIGHT points last fall. This is another battle of star quarterbacks as Rypien matches up with Tanner Mangum.  

• Virginia at Boise State (September 22): This game just jumps out as one that must be watched. Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall is looking to turn the program around after the first season that saw them lose to a terrible UConn squad and Richmond of the FCS. He is quite familiar with the Broncos from his time as head coach of BYU. Boise State is coming off of a year that seemed one step off in every possible way. They blew multiple chances to win the MWC and eventually played right out of a chance at winning their division. Despite Virginia being much improved from 2016, this should be a game the Broncos control throughout and win convincingly.

• Toledo at Nevada (September 9): What this game could have been if James Butler decided to stay with the Wolfpack. The star running back took advantage of the graduate transfer rule and headed to Iowa in the offseason. Instead of Butler, the Wolfpack will likely rely upon Alabama quarterback transfer David Cornwall to light up the Rockets defense. Toledo has players to replace (especially at running back and tight end), but there are players on the roster to fill the gaps. I can’t see anyone handling wide receiver Cody Thompson in man coverage. Expect the Rockets to roll.

• Troy at Boise State (September 2): The first matchup of two historically excellent G5 programs, this game should be a treat. The Trojans are stacked on offense with the Sun Belt’s top two returning receivers, an excellent running back, and arguably the best quarterback in the conference. The battle of Brandon Silvers and Brett Rypien is easily worth the viewing. Boise State head coach Brian Harsin is very familiar with the Trojans from his time at Arkansas State.

• Colorado vs. Colorado State (September 1): Typically a close matchup with nine of the last 15 meetings settled by a touchdown or less, this is always a game to watch. We finally get both teams on the upswing at the same time, keeping us from falling prey to another 44-7 drubbing. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Rams head into Denver and make this a compelling game, but I do not think they have the weapons to pull out a win.

• UNLV at Idaho (September 9): In a magical 2016 season that saw the Vandals return to a bowl game, it was this game that seemingly turned the corner. Idaho pulled out an overtime win in the third of three straight road non-conferences games before Sun Belt play. UNLV was all over the place last season, losing to San Jose State while beating Hawaii and Wyoming. The Rebels have a ton of promise but have to take a step forward this season.

• Oregon at Wyoming (September 16): Last season saw these two teams head in completely different directions. Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl entered the season on the hot seat and nearly won the MWC to retain his job. He has who some are calling the eventual #1 pick of the NFL Draft under center and some weapons ready to replace the losses from last season. Oregon has a new head coach in Willie Taggart. They have a lot of work to do to fix the multiple issues that resulted in a disappointing 4-8 season.  

• Stanford at San Diego State (September 16): Despite lacking the 5-star commits of USC or the exotic schemes of Washington State, all Stanford does is win. The Cardinal is coming off of another 10 win season last fall, but lose a game changer at running back for this season. The Aztecs feel their pain as they attempt life after Pumphrey. Luckily, they have a more than capable replacement in Rashaad Penny. It is on defense where SDSU is capable of being exposed this fall.

• Oregon State at Colorado State (September 23): Has it really been 42 years since these two teams met previously? Colorado State is coming off of a season that started terribly but found its groove once the offense started humming. The Beavers had a tough 2016 season under Mike Riley, but are hedging their bets on Idaho quarterback castoff Jake Luton to fix their offensive woes. Luton has the physical tools and could blossom into a star under the right coaching.

• New Mexico at Tulsa (September 23): Love them or hate them, you have to give credit to Tulsa. They are happy to play any G5 team as evidenced by a non-conference slate that includes Louisiana (Sun Belt), New Mexico (MWC), and Toledo (MAC). The Golden Hurricane sport a bruising running game that includes three potential first team All-AAC offensive linemen. The Lobos are no stranger to the run game with head coach Bob Davie leading an option attack. If you love the run game and points scored, this is the game for you.

Others to watch: Hawaii at UMass, USF at SJSU, Wyoming at Iowa, Nevada at Northwestern, Boise State at Washington State, NMSU at New Mexico, SDSU at Arizona State, Utah State at Wake Forest, NIU at SDSU, Air Force at Navy, Army at Air Force. 

Ten MAC Out of Conference Games To Watch

No conference does a better job on a yearly basis of scheduling compelling G5/G5 games than the MAC. From CUSA to the MWC, every conference is represented with games you must watch. Let's just hope that more of the MAC can win a few games in these matchups and make the entire conference look better this fall.

Let's take a look at the ten MAC non-conference games to watch.

• Tulsa at Toledo (September 16): Why do we not get games like this every year? Two quality G5 teams playing one another rather than wasting it with a lower quality opponent. The Golden Hurricane will have time to recover from the Oklahoma State game to start the season and should be able to control the line of scrimmage in the run game. Toledo could be in position to make some noise nationally if they can get through Elon, Nevada, Tulsa, and Miami (Fl.) to start the season. This game could be the toughest of the season for the Rockets.

• Miami at Marshall (September 2): A matchup that goes well into the history of both programs, the Thundering Herd and RedHawks could end up giving us one of the most interesting games of the non-conference season. Among the many aspects of the game to watch, the battle of quarterbacks Gus Ragland and Chase Litton nearly guarantees us a high-scoring affair. Currently, Miami looks like the early favorite to win this game.

• Boston College at NIU (September 1): After the disaster of the 2016 season, the Huskies host a solid P5 team with a chance to make national news. The Eagles are coming off of their third bowl berth in the last four seasons, attempting to improve on a consistent 7-6 record in those three seasons. NIU must quickly have players step up in the offensive backfield and at wide receiver if they want to win. Expect this game to be a lower scoring affair with the winner scoring no more than 24 points.

• UAB at Ball State (September 9): This is the first FBS game for the Blazers since putting together the pieces of a disbanded program not all that long ago. UAB is a complete mystery full of players that have been with the program more than a year before playing their first game. Do not expect them to beat Ball State, but it may be more competitive than many think. Ball State needs a hot start to the season if they want to go bowling and this is a must win game.

• Idaho at WMU (September 16): This is a sneaky good game that could make up for the two duds we got from the Georgia Southern-Western Michigan series. The Vandals are in their final year of FBS play and could be sending out their best team in a very long time. Led by star quarterback Matt Linehan, they can put up points in bunches. Idaho scored 37+ points in each of the last four games of the 2017 season. The Broncos have arguably the best duo of running backs in the nation this season. Between Bogan and Franklin, WMU can run over the majority of its schedule without resorting to the passing game all that much. Expect lots of points. 

• Ohio at Purdue (September 8): In what has become a common occurrence, the Bobcats are again favored to win the MAC East Division and play for the conference title. Ohio is a very disciplined team that makes other teams work to beat them. Purdue is a big of a question mark with former WKU head coach Jeff Brohm taking the reins. The Boilermakers are probably a year or two away from amassing the talent that can make Brohm’s system run, but they are still a dangerous team. I feel like this is a game Ohio can and should win.

• Toledo at Nevada (September 9): What this game could have been if James Butler decided to stay with the Wolfpack. The star running back took advantage of the graduate transfer rule and headed to Iowa in the offseason. Instead of Butler, the Wolfpack will likely rely upon Alabama quarterback transfer David Cornwall to light up the Rockets defense. Toledo has players to replace (especially at running back and tight end), but there are players on the roster to fill the gaps. I can’t see anyone handling wide receiver Cody Thompson in man coverage. Expect the Rockets to roll.

• Cincinnati at Miami (September 16): This is a game that will show just where both teams are headed into conference play. The Bearcats are in rebuilding mode, but have some talent on the roster left over by Tuberville. The program is being built the right way by Fickell and company, but that means a rough 2017 is in store. Miami has high expectations and a win over, albeit down, Cincinnati would do wonders for the RedHawks.

• Ball State at WKU (September 23): A year after watching MAC rival Miami nearly knock off one of the top three G5 teams in the nation last season, the Cardinals look to do the same. There is quite a bit of talent on the Ball State roster, but it will take a nearly perfect effort to knock off the kings of Conference USA. The Hilltoppers are in a very slight rebuilding process, but still have Mike White, a stable of talented running backs, and the most dynamic return man in the nation. WKU has questions on defense, but they can normally score enough for that to be only a small problem.

• Northern Illinois at San Diego State (September 30): I have never seen a team struggle more with games they should win than the Aztecs. They lost in back to back seasons to a decent at best South Alabama squad and the Huskies had every chance to take control of their matchup last season. SDSU loses a lot on defense and must replace Donnel Pumphrey, but recruiting is not a problem in San Diego. The Huskies would love to have a signature win like this in 2017, but this is asking a lot. A win here could quell many of the shouts for Rod Carey’s job.

Just missed the list: Buffalo at Minnesota, Charlotte at EMU, Ball State at Illinois, WMU at Michigan State, Bowling Green at Michigan State, Kent State at Clemson, Western Michigan at USC.

2017 Sun Belt Top Returning Offensive Players

We are weeks away from another foray into the Funbelt. Last season was a rollercoaster as teams rose from the ashes (Idaho) while others fell to the ground (Georgia Southern). No one fully knows what to expect out of the conference this fall other than Arkansas State, Appalachian State, and Troy will be good.

Without further ado, here is a look at the Sun Belt's top returning offensive skill position players for the 2017 season.

Rushing:

1. Jalin Moore, Appalachian State: 237/1,402/10TD
2. Jordan Chunn, Troy: 279/1,288/16TD
3. Warren Wand, Arkansas State: 200/879/7TD
4. Larry Rose III, New Mexico State: 159/865/4TD
5. Xavier Johnson, South Alabama: 151/831/10TD

Others to watch: Isaiah Saunders IDAHO (159/731/9TD), Aaron Duckworth IDAHO (145/676/5TD).

The top end of the running back position in the Sun Belt is as talented as any group in the nation. From Moore to Johnson, and of the top five running backs is capable of a 1,500-yard season. Larry Rose has a chance to rebound from an injury plagued season in 2016 and lead the Aggies to their first bowl game since the 1960s. He is capable of a 2,000-yard season if everything falls right.

As a group, Idaho might be in the best shape in the backfield. They have two solid backs that added up for just over 1,400 yards, giving them a fighting chance if one of the big two is stricken with an injury. It could be a year to remember for the Vandals as they make their farewell tour of the Sun Belt.

Passing:

1. Matt Linehan, Idaho: 257-415/3,184/19TD/136.7 Efficiency
2. Brandon Silvers, Troy: 293-460/3,180/23TD/133.0 Efficiency
3. Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 197-340/2,719/19TD/138.9 Efficiency
4. Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 198-348/2,706/11TD/125.8 Efficiency
5. Conner Manning, Georgia State: 207-373/2,684/16TD/123.1 Efficiency

Others to watch: Tyler Rogers NMSU (2,589/16TD), Taylor Lamb APP STATE (2,281/15TD), Garrett Smith ULM (1,237/9TD), Austin Wilson CCU (Graduate Transfer from Syracuse).

Just like the running back position, there is a ton of talent at the top end of the quarterback position. Taylor Lamb of Appalachian State only threw for 2,281 last season, but he is in a run first offense and has personally carried the ball for more than 400 yards in each of the last three seasons.

Linehan is the top pro prospect among Sun Belt quarterbacks. He is accurate, agile enough in the pocket, and has an NFL bloodline as his father is the offensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys. A 3,500+ yard season this fall could vault Linehan into round three or four of the 2018 draft.

Receiving:

1. Emanuel Thompson, Troy: 80/820/6TD
2. Deondre Douglas, Troy: 60/740/6TD
3. Sheadon Meadors, Appalachian State: 45/716/2TD
4. Blake Mack, Arkansas State: 34/652/3TD
5. Glenn Smith, Georgia State: 40/547/3TD

Others to watch: Tevaris McCormick TROY (35/456/5TD), Penny Hart GA STATE (Injured in 2016), Elijah King TEXAS STATE (28/453/2TD), RJ TURNER ULM (23/433/3TD), Xavier Brown ULM (25/425/4TD), Keenan Barnes ULL (3/418/6TD), Alfonso Onunwor IDAHO (39/403/1TD), Thurman Morbley TEXAS STATE (35/400/2TD).

The wide receiver position in the Sun Belt is all over the place. You have explosive tight ends, stars coming back from injury, and a stacked group in Troy. First, the Trojans could have a historic season this year with three of the top six returning receivers in the Sun Belt. Thompson and Douglas should again account for 140-150 catches and McComick could jump to the 45-50 catch range. That is a hell of a trio.

Arkansas State tight end Blake Mack is one of the best-hidden secrets in college football. He is electric with the ball and turns a potent Red Wolves attack into something downright scary. A 19.3 yards per catch average is no joke, but he needs to be at the 50+ catch range this fall.

Finally, Penny Hart. The 2015 Sun Belt freshman of the year is again healthy and ready to run wild in the conference. If Hart can prove he is over his injury woes and return to his 2015 self, the Panthers could be in line for another bowl berth.

Next week, we will take a look at defense and special teams for the Sun Belt before rolling out conference previews. 

Sun Belt Week Five Review

Another week is in the books for the 2015 college football season with the Sun Belt going 4-6. Conference play kicked into gear with three Sun Belt games taking place. Let's take a look at the good, bad, and ugly of week five Sun Belt football action.

Sun Belt Week Four Review

Another week is in the books for the 2015 college football season with the Sun Belt going 2-6 with one conference game taking place. Let's take a look at the good, bad, and ugly of week four Sun Belt football action.

Sun Belt Week Three Review

Another week is in the books for the 2015 college football season with Sun Belt going 5-3 with no conference games taking place. Let's take a look at the good, bad, and ugly of week three Sun Belt football action.

Sun Belt Conference Week Two Review:

Another week is in the books for the 2015 college football season with the Sun Belt going 6-5 with only one conference game (Ga. St-NMSU) taking place. Let's take a look at the good, bad, and ugly of week two Sun Belt football.

Sun Belt Week One Review

With one week in the books, who were the biggest winners and losers of the opening week?

Top 10 G5 Receiving Yards: Week One

Known for their strong running game, Northern Illinois surprised everyone with the nation's only 200+ yard receiving performance of Week One.

Top 10 G5 Passers: Week One

With a week full of games in the books, let's take a look at the top passers among Group of Five Conference programs.

Group Of Five Thursday Night Statistical Leaders

One day of FBS football is in the books and here is a look at the top 10 performers from the opening night games.

MAC Week One Preview

The MAC is getting started with 12 games during Week One of the college football season with two G5 teams coming to town? I see the MAC going 5-7 in those 12 games.

Sun Belt Predictions

When people hear the Sun Belt Conference, they tend to think of the bad and the teams that left for CUSA among other places. In reality, the Sun Belt is an up and coming conference that has been smart in adding Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. Let's take a look at the Sun Belt and how I see things shaking down.

Sun Belt Players to Watch

There are lots of players to watch in the Sun Belt this fall throughout the conference. Let's take a look at a few from every team in the league:

Top Sun Belt Non-Conference Games

Non-Conference Games to watch:

2015 Sun Belt Football Schedule

Sun Belt Schedule:

Week One Thursday Night Games: My Predictions

Week One of the FBS season is only two weeks away and brings us 55 games involving G5 teams including six games of G5 versus G5 teams. Today I will predict all 13 Thursday night games.

Why your team will win the Sun Belt Title

Why your team will not win the Sun Belt Title