Week One Thursday Night Games: My Predictions

Week One of the FBS season is only two weeks away and brings us 55 games involving G5 teams including six games of G5 versus G5 teams. Today I will predict all 13 Thursday night games.

• Florida International at Central Florida: This CUSA-AAC matchup will not be the prettiest game on television to start the 2015 season with neither team really possessing an offense that was very productive last fall. UCF quarterback Justin Holman threw for 2,952 yards and 23 touchdowns last fall but his top wide receiver, Breshad Perriman, is now in the NFL with the Ravens. FIU has one of the nation's most dynamic tight ends in Jonnu Smith (61/710/8TD) but ranked 100+ in passing, rushing, and points per game. FIU has lots of talent on defense led by All-CUSA defensive back Richard Leonard but saw the field quite a bit with a poor offense that was unable to stay on the field. Central Florida is no slouch on defense with the nation's fifth ranked defense, giving up only 298.5 yards per game. This game my be closer than it should be but UCF is the better team and wins. Prediction: UCF 35, FIU 17. 
• Oklahoma State at Central Michigan: The Chippewas get a legitimate Power five conference programs to visit in Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are coming off of a disappointing 7-6 season that saw the rushing game (#102/136.6 ypg) and scoring offense (#76/27.6 ppg) struggle. Central Michigan is coming off of a 7-6 season of their own but lost head coach Dan Enos to a offensive coordinator job. The Chippewas ended the 2014 season with the nation's 29th ranked defense at 355.5 yards per game but had their worst performance of the season in the Bahamas Bowl loss to WKU. Quarterback Connor Rush (243-382/3,157/27TD) improved significantly during his sophomore season with nine straight 200+ passing games to end the season. CMU will give it a good shot but an Oklahoma State team looking to prove 2014 was a fluke will be too much to handle. Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, CMU 21. 
• VMI at Ball State: The Cardinals are coming off of a 5-7 season that was guided by graduated running back Jahwan Edwards (262/1252/12TD). Quarterback Jack Milas took over mid-season and was very up and down but should be able to show significant improvement this fall for Ball State. The problem with Ball State is that they are not that good but not that bad, just a middle of the pack team last fall. With three straight road games following the season opener, the Cardinals should be able to work out the kinks offensively and defensively in an easy win over VMI. Prediction: Ball State 42, VMI 13.
• Stony Brook at Toledo: Expectations are very high for Toledo heading into the 2015 season with one of the most electrifying running backs in the nation back this fall. Kareem Hunt put up 1,631 yards and 16 touchdowns despite missing three games and broke the 100 yard barrier in all 10 games he played. The Rockets were 13th nationally in rushing yards per game and 20th ranked scoring at 36.6 points per game last season. Stony Brook is an FCS team coming off of a 5-7 season and should offer little resistance to the Toledo offense. The biggest takeaway will be if the Rockets defense is better than in 2014. Prediction: Toledo 55, Stony Brook 21.  
• Villanova at UConn: This is the game many are circling in the FS community as a game that the FCS program has a significant chance to win over an FBS program. Villanova is a historically great team at the FCS level and is coming off of an 11-3 season. UConn is just not very good with a 2-10 record in 2014 and 100+ in passing, rushing, and scoring. The -14.3 points per game margin was one of the worst in the FBS last fall. Villanova is not scared of the AAC program and will come in and pull out the win. Prediction: Villanova 28, UConn 17. 
• WKU at Vanderbilt: This game is a huge game for all G5 programs as the Hilltoppers have a chance to defeat an SEC program on national television with eyes watching all over the country. The Hilltoppers are an offensive powerhouse led by quarterback Brandon Doughty (375-552/4,830/49TD), the nation's leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns. WKU also has a 1,500 yard rusher in Leon Allen but were absolutely terrible on defense last fall with a 39.9 points allowed per game average. Vanderbilt was just terrible overall at 3-9 and 100+ rankings in passing, rushing, scoring, and points allowed. Unless WKU gets caught up in their own hype, they are the better team and should dominate the SEC program. Prediction: WKU 48, Vanderbilt 27.
• Ohio at Idaho: In an interesting cross country matchup, Ohio heads to the Kibble Dome to face Paul Petrino and the Idaho Vandals. Ohio finished the season 6-6 in 2014 despite one of the worst scoring offenses in the nation at 20.5 points per game. The Bobcats were solid on offense with 370+ yards per game but somehow could not put points on the board. A defense that gave up only 24.8 points per game kept Ohio from a losing record. Idaho had a good passing game led by quarterback Matt Linehan (221-378/2,540/11TD). Otherwise, the Vandals were terrible with a 96th ranked rushing attack, 91st ranked in points per game, and 114th in points allowed at 37.3. The -12.3 points per game average is hard to overcome. Prediction: Ohio 47, Idaho 23.  
• Southern Utah at Utah State: This is a perfect opening game for the Aggies with quarterback Chuckie Keeton returning from injury. The Aggies have a great defense led by Nick Vigil that finshed 12th nationally in points allowed at 19.7 per game and 30 nationally with 356.1 yards per game allowed. Southern Utah was 3-9 last fall and will struggle versus Utah State with the Aggies rolling to a big win. Prediction: Utah State 48, Southern Utah 3.
• Duke at Tulane: Despite holding homefield advantage versus an ACC opponent, Tulane is outgunned and over matched versus a sneaky good Duke team. The Blue Devils went 9-4 in 2014 while 43rd ranked nationally in points scored at 32.4 per game. The Duke defense was a bend but not break that finish in the top 25 nationally with only 21.8 points per game allowed. Tulane was one of the nation's poorest offenses with only 16.0 points scored per game while giving up 28.4. The -12.4 points per game scoring margin was very indicative of their 3-9 record. Prediction: Duke 55, Tulane 13.
• UTSA at Arizona: A year after nearly pulling off a seismic upset at home, UTSA heads out to to Arizona to play the Pac-12 foe. Arizona is coming off of a Fiesta Bowl berth with an offense that was 21st in passing, 47th in rushing, and 30th in points scored. A suspect defense can keep UTSA in the game. The Roadrunners are coming off of a 4-8 season that saw them struggle completely on offense with the 110th ranked passing game, the 110th ranked rushing game, and the 121st ranked scoring team at 17.1 points per game. A defense that only gave up 25.9 points per game kept UTSA in games. This is not a good matchup for the Roadrunners and I cannot see them pulling off the road upset. Prediction: Arizona 49, UTSA 19. 
• UC Davis at Nevada: Despite the fact that a starting quarterback has not been announced, there is little worry in Reno with the Wolf Pack hosting UC Davis in the season opener. Nevada was average in many statistical categories but could run the football to the tune of 205.5 points per game last fall. Running back Don Jackson (216/957/7TD) is back after an up and down junior season and should finally break the 1,000 yard mark for the first time this fall. UC Davis is not very good on the FCS level and is probably a perfect warm up for a Nevada team that has Arizona on the horizon. Prediction: Nevada 38, UC Davis 17.
• New Hampshire at San Jose State: San Jose State, coming off of a 3-9 season in 2014, may have one of the tougher FBS-FCS matchups in the nation to start the season with New Hampshire heading to town. New Hampshire was 12-2 last fall and are annually one of the better FCS teams in the nation. San Jose State was a lower tier MWC team that struggled to rush the ball and put points on the board last fall at only 19.3 points per game. A -10.1 points per game margin meant the Spartans took several lumps along the way in a disappointing 2014 season. The Spartans look better overall this season and in getting New Hampshire to travel cross country for a kickoff that is 10:00 PM EST, San Jose State gets an advantage. Prediction: San Jose State 31, New Hampshire 27.  
• Abiline Christian at Fresno State: Fresno State, despite significant losses from the 2013 season, actually surprised many last fall in winning the MWC West division but will struggle to do so this season. The Bulldogs host Abiline Christian in the season opener after last playing over 40 years ago. Fresno State returns running back Marteze Waller (225/1,368/11TD) but have to replace another quarterback this fall. Abiline Christian, a 6-6 team in 2014, should be the perfect team to experiment against in preparation for a tough season. Prediction: Fresno State 45, Abiline Christian 14.