Which Teams Have The Best Shot Of Going To The CUSA Title Game: Some Clarity Emerges

It wouldn't be another week of CUSA football without at least one major upset. This week, FIU surprisingly took care of Marshall while UAB snuck out with a win versus Southern Miss. All that did was strengthen the grips of North Texas and FAU on a trip to the CUSA title game. 

Back to back CUSA champion WKU was virtually eliminated from contention after giving up a second half lead in a loss to FAU. Let's see how Conference USA stacks up.

Conference USA East Division:

Contenders: FAU, FIU, Marshall, WKU (Barely).

Pretenders: MTSU, Charlotte, Old Dominion.

• Florida Atlantic (5-3, 4-0 CUSA): Either CUSA is really not very good this year or FAU figured things out after a road loss to Buffalo. They are the only undefeated team in the conference, but face a put up or shut up three-game stretch of the season with Marshall, La. Tech, and FIU on the slate. Win all three and the season finale versus Charlotte doesn’t even matter. A loss to La. Tech wouldn’t be that bad as long as they beat Marshall and FIU. A loss to Marshall or FIU could open the division for anyone to win. Chance of winning the division: 58%.
• Florida International (5-2, 3-1 CUSA): Surprise, surprise, the Panthers are sitting in second place and only one game from a bowl berth. Winning out would give them a 7-1 CUSA record and tiebreakers over FAU and Marshall. There is still a tough game upcoming as UTSA travels to Miami in a virtual division winner elimination game. Only after that win can FIU even think about being the East Division representative. Until they are eliminated, I will not count FIU out. Chance of winning the division: 22%.
• Marshall (6-2, 3-1 CUSA): The Thundering Herd blew a chance to effectively eliminate FIU from the race in a 41-30 loss. What that did was force Marshall into needing a perfect final four games to have any hope of a division title. They have FAU and WKU in the next two weeks with a shot to earn a tiebreaker over both and give WKU a fatal third CUSA loss.  Even going 4-0, they need some help in the form of an FIU loss to take the division. Chance of winning the division: 19%.
• Western Kentucky (5-3, 3-2 CUSA): The Hilltoppers are on life support after blowing a lead versus FAU. That win means that FAU would need to lose three of their final four games to fall behind WKU. Winning out would give them the tiebreakers over FIU and Marshall, eliminating both teams from contention. Asking the only CUSA undefeated to lose three of four to end the season is quite a bit of a request. Chance of winning the division: 1%.

Conference USA West Division:

Contenders: North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA, Louisiana Tech.

Pretenders: Rice, UTEP.

• North Texas (7-1, 4-1 CUSA): Beat Louisiana Tech. As stated before, they are basically then West Division champs if they win over the Bulldogs. With that win, it would take losses in each of the final two CUSA games to keep from winning the division. A loss would send us into chaos as there would then be a multi-team tie at the top and the tiebreaker sheet would come out. Let’s not look at the silly tiebreaker sheet until we are absolutely forced to do so. Chance of winning the division: 65%.
• UAB (6-2, 3-2 CUSA): The only realistic shot for the Blazers is to win out and hope for North Texas to lose two games down the stretch, one to Louisiana Tech and one to either Rice or UTEP. Winning out would give them tiebreakers over Southern Miss, UTSA, and Louisiana Tech in addition to a one game lead over UNT. Not the easiest route to winning the division, but not entirely impossible. Chance of winning the division: 5%.
• Southern Miss (5-2, 3-2 CUSA): The Golden Eagles need to win down the stretch and get a bit of help. They hold tiebreakers over LA Tech and UTSA, but lose in tiebreakers to UNT and UAB. Basically, a win by LA Tech over North Texas and complete chaos is the most realistic route to Southern Miss winning the division. USM would still need UAB and to lose another game and North Texas to lose to either Rice or UTEP to clear out a few of the tiebreakers, but anything is possible. Chance of winning the division: 5%.
• UTSA (5-2, 2-2 CUSA): The Roadrunners, needing a bit of help to win the west, actually have the ability to affect the entire CUSA race in both divisions. All four of their November games are versus teams that still have a shot at winning their division. Win out and the Roadrunners eliminate UAB and LA Tech from contention. Then UTSA needs some help at they need at least one more USM loss and two losses by UNT before the season ends. Can anyone reliably expect Rice or UTEP to beat North Texas? Chance of winning the division: 10%.
• Louisiana Tech (4-4, 2-2 CUSA): Looking down and out not all that long ago, the Bulldogs may have the best shot at taking out North Texas. A win over the Mean Green followed by running the table could throw the division into a multi-team jumble at the top with LA Tech holding tiebreakers over UTSA and North Texas. They would still need some help from losses by UAB and Southern Miss down the stretch to head back to the CUSA title game. Chance of winning the division: 15%.

*It should be noted that if multiple teams (3+) end up in a tie, we are headed to the dreaded tiebreaker sheet and there are just too many possible scenarios to evaluate at this point without driving me crazy.*

Projected CUSA Title Game: North Texas at FAU (again)