Which Teams Are Most Likely Heading To The AAC Title Game?

By Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0, httpscommons.wikimedia.orgwindex.phpcurid=52623792

We are at a point in the season where clarity in division races starts to take shape. For the most part, the AAC is falling into place with teams like UConn, Tulane and East Carolina falling to the wayside. Realistically, only six teams have a chance at winning a division with only four looking likely.

What is great about college football is the fact that we will likely not know which teams are heading to the title game until the end of Thanksgiving weekend. With that said, let's take a look at the AAC and which teams are in position to win the conference.

AAC East Division:

Contenders: UCF, USF

Pretenders: Connecticut, Temple, East Carolina.

• USF (7-1, 4-1 AAC): Despite falling in brutal fashion to Houston, the Bulls still hold destiny in their own hands. If they win the AAC, they will almost assuredly go to a NY6 bowl and have a chance on a national stage to beat a traditional power. The road to that goal is through Orlando versus rival UCF. No matter what, this was going to be a game they had to win to win the division and it will be even more important as UCF will likely (maybe?) head into this matchup undefeated. Chance of winning the division: 30%.
• UCF (7-0, 4-0 AAC): Sure it was FCS program Austin Peay, but the Knights continue to blow the doors off of everyone in their paths. Navy was the only team to hang within 10 points of UCF this season and the schedule is set up for a 10-0 record when they face USF. SMU is a tough matchup, but do not match up well in the November 4 matchup. Even if they do fall, a win over USF in the finale would seal the division. Basically, take care of business versus the Bulls and they are golden. Chance of winning the division: 70%.

AAC West Division:

Contenders: Memphis, SMU, Navy, Houston.

Pretenders: Tulane, Tulsa.

• Memphis (7-1, 4-1 AAC): This division is still very much up for grabs, but the Tigers are in the driver’s seat down the stretch. They have wins over Houston and Navy, while facing SMU later in the season. Memphis should have no trouble with Tulsa or ECU, making the SMU game the only real chance for anyone to catch up to the Tigers. For the reading impaired, Memphis would need to lose two times down the stretch for Navy or Houston to win, but would give up the division if SMU wins out. Pretty simple route. Chance of winning the division: 75%.
• SMU (6-2, 3-1 AAC): I wouldn’t have thought that the Mustangs would be in the running for an AAC title at this point in the season, but here they are. The problem moving forward is the difficulty of schedule. They have UCF, Navy, and Memphis in a three week stretch before hosting Tulane in the season finale. While running the table is possible, it is unlikely. Outside of going 3-1 in their final four games with one win being over Memphis, we could be looking at chaos. Chance of winning the division: 15%.
• Navy (5-2, 3-2 AAC): The Midshipmen are in a tough spot, but can get back into the race if a few things go their way. Either way, they will need two Memphis losses to jump ahead in the standings, while also beating Temple, SMU, and Houston. Otherwise, too many things would have to happen for Navy to realistically win the division. Chance of winning the division: 4%.
• Houston (5-3, 3-2 AAC): The Cougars were on the edge of elimination, but came through with an almost miracle win over South Florida to stay in the race. They hold a tiebreaker over SMU, but lost to Memphis, necessitating two losses by Memphis down the stretch to get the win. That perplexing loss to Tulsa will likely be the main reason that Houston misses out on a chance at winning the AAC West Division. Chance of winning the division: 6%. 

Projected AAC Title Game: Memphis at Central Florida.