Well, that number has gotten much smaller with teams losing the expected (Appalachian State v. Miami) to the surprising (UTSA v. Southern Miss). Now, we sit heading into Halloween weekend with only two undefeated teams among the G5 ranks... South Florida and Central Florida.
One thing for certain is the fact that we will end the regular season with no more than one G5 undefeated team as the two programs are on a collision course for a Black Friday matchup in Orlando.
Let's take a look at the two AAC programs and their chances of making a run to an undefeated record.
***Don't forget. Either USF or UCF will have to play, most likely, Memphis in the AAC title game before heading to a bowl.**
#17/#14 South Florida (7-0, 4-0 AAC):
What a roller coaster it has been for the Bulls. They started the season as the top ranked G5 program and a dark horse pick to give the playoff committee some pause before eventually choosing a 10-2 P5 program for the playoff. Then the season started. USF struggled in the opening two games of the season versus inferior competition and tumbled down the ranks. From San Diego State to Memphis, multiple teams have been the flavor of the month while the Bulls just win. Don't look now but they are sitting at 7-0 and a tricky game versus Houston from heading to the season ending matchup at UCF.
What makes USF so good?
Heading into the season, the USF offense got all the accolades. Thy had star quarterback Quinton Flowers leading one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. Don't get me wrong, they are the #7 rushing team in the nation and #13 in points scored per game, but defense is what has changed in Tampa.
South Florida had great athletes last fall, but still gave up a lot of points in the process. They lost games they should have won due to lapses on that side of the ball. When Willie Taggart left for Oregon, it gave the program a chance to bring in a defensive mind. It has worked with Charlie Strong. The former Texas head coach has the Bulls #18 in the nation in total defense, #24 in points allowed per game, #1 in interceptions, #9 in rushing defense, #26 in sacks per game, #5 in TFL per game, and #20 in defensive touchdowns.
Defensive backs Deatrick Nichols (2 INT), Devin Abraham (4 INT), and Mazzi Wilkins (3 INT) have combined for nine picks, but the fact that linebackers Auggie Sanchez (2 INT) and Nico Sawtelle (2 INT) have combined for four picks is downright impressive. This true air patrol has helped to lift USF to the best turnover margin in the nation at +13.
Remaining Schedule:
- 10/28: Houston
- 11/4: At UConn
- 11/16: Tulsa
- 11/24: At UCF
Chance at undefeated: 55%.
Raise your hand if you saw the Knights sitting at 7-0 with wins over Memphis, Maryland, and Navy. If you raised your hand, you are either a liar or a huge homer for the program. Not only did they win those three games, they won all three by a combined 109-44. Only Navy has been within ten points of UCF at this point in the season. Scott Frost and company have done what no one has done at UCF in school history... start the season 7-0. There is no reason to think they won't be sitting at 10-0 heading into the game versus South Florida.
How did UCF turn the switch and turn into one of the best teams in the nation?
A team first attitude and the maturation of McKenzie Milton.
On offense, the Knights have a group of players willing to perform in their roles to better service the team. Taj McGowan has the role of battering the opposing defense as evidenced by his 3.8 yards per carry average. Since he does his role so well, it allows players like Adrian Killins Jr. (49/413/5TD) and Otis Anderson (18/157/1TD) to run free to the second level. Just looking at the fact that seven different players have at least 14 carries for this team shows just how much the wealth is spread.
Defensively, the Knights rank as the #30 team in the nation, giving up only 347.5 yards per game. That number jumps to #16 nationally in scoring defense, #17 in first downs allowed, #9 in interceptions, #34 in rushing defense, and the #3 turnover margin in the nation.
A player like Shaquem Griffin might be disappointed to only have five TFL and two sacks, but he is doing his job and playing a role to help win games. If that means busting up blockers so that Pat Jasinski can swoop in and make the tackle, then he does it.
The secondary may be the most talented and athletic position group on the team, but the linebacker corps is the heart and soul of the defense. Jasinski, Chequan Burkett, Griffin, and Titus Davis all have 24 or more tackles and have combined for 10.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks, Davis has not earned a sack on the season, but leads the team with five quarterback hits.
I could go on an on about Milton, but just look at what he has done so far this season. in 186 fewer pass attempts, he is only 261 yards behind last year's total. He has a completion percentage higher by nearly 12%, has six more touchdown passes than all last season, and has only been sacked three times. His rating is second in the nation behind Baker Mayfield, while also second in the nation in yards per attempt (11.4). In addition, Milton has taken more control of the entire offense as a sophomore, making a step that many did not think would come until his junior season.
Remaining Schedule:
- 10/28: Austin Peay
- 11/4: At SMU
- 11/11: UConn
- 11/18: At Temple
- 11/24: USF
Chance at undefeated: 45%.
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