Which G5 Team Has The Best Shot At Going Undefeated? UCF or USF?

Remember just a few weeks ago when so many teams had hopes of being the G5 program to run the gauntlet and end up in a New Year's Six bowl like Western Michigan last fall or Houston the season before? Eight teams were looking at perfect season with many already holding a win over a P5 program.

Well, that number has gotten much smaller with teams losing the expected (Appalachian State v. Miami) to the surprising (UTSA v. Southern Miss). Now, we sit heading into Halloween weekend with only two undefeated teams among the G5 ranks... South Florida and Central Florida. 
One thing for certain is the fact that we will end the regular season with no more than one G5 undefeated team as the two programs are on a collision course for a Black Friday matchup in Orlando. 

Let's take a look at the two AAC programs and their chances of making a run to an undefeated record. 

***Don't forget. Either USF or UCF will have to play, most likely, Memphis in the AAC title game before heading to a bowl.**



#17/#14 South Florida (7-0, 4-0 AAC): 
What a roller coaster it has been for the Bulls. They started the season as the top ranked G5 program and a dark horse pick to give the playoff committee some pause before eventually choosing a 10-2 P5 program for the playoff. Then the season started. USF struggled in the opening two games of the season versus inferior competition and tumbled down the ranks. From San Diego State to Memphis, multiple teams have been the flavor of the month while the Bulls just win. Don't look now but they are sitting at 7-0 and a tricky game versus Houston from heading to the season ending matchup at UCF.

What makes USF so good? 

Heading into the season, the USF offense got all the accolades. Thy had star quarterback Quinton Flowers leading one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. Don't get me wrong, they are the #7 rushing team in the nation and #13 in points scored per game, but defense is what has changed in Tampa. 

South Florida had great athletes last fall, but still gave up a lot of points in the process. They lost games they should have won due to lapses on that side of the ball. When Willie Taggart left for Oregon, it gave the program a chance to bring in a defensive mind. It has worked with Charlie Strong. The former Texas head coach has the Bulls #18 in the nation in total defense, #24 in points allowed per game, #1 in interceptions, #9 in rushing defense, #26 in sacks per game, #5 in TFL per game, and #20 in defensive touchdowns. 

Defensive backs Deatrick Nichols (2 INT), Devin Abraham (4 INT), and Mazzi Wilkins (3 INT) have combined for nine picks, but the fact that linebackers Auggie Sanchez (2 INT) and Nico Sawtelle (2 INT) have combined for four picks is downright impressive. This true air patrol has helped to lift USF to the best turnover margin in the nation at +13. 

Remaining Schedule:

• 10/28: Houston
• 11/4: At UConn
• 11/16: Tulsa
• 11/24: At UCF

Chance at undefeated: 55%.

#18/#17 UCF (6-0, 4-0): 
Raise your hand if you saw the Knights sitting at 7-0 with wins over Memphis, Maryland, and Navy. If you raised your hand, you are either a liar or a huge homer for the program. Not only did they win those three games, they won all three by a combined 109-44. Only Navy has been within ten points of UCF at this point in the season. Scott Frost and company have done what no one has done at UCF in school history... start the season 7-0. There is no reason to think they won't be sitting at 10-0 heading into the game versus South Florida. 

How did UCF turn the switch and turn into one of the best teams in the nation? 

A team first attitude and the maturation of McKenzie Milton. 

On offense, the Knights have a group of players willing to perform in their roles to better service the team. Taj McGowan has the role of battering the opposing defense as evidenced by his 3.8 yards per carry average. Since he does his role so well, it allows players like Adrian Killins Jr. (49/413/5TD) and Otis Anderson (18/157/1TD) to run free to the second level. Just looking at the fact that seven different players have at least 14 carries for this team shows just how much the wealth is spread. 

Defensively, the Knights rank as the #30 team in the nation, giving up only 347.5 yards per game. That number jumps to #16 nationally in scoring defense, #17 in first downs allowed, #9 in interceptions, #34 in rushing defense, and the #3 turnover margin in the nation. 

A player like Shaquem Griffin might be disappointed to only have five TFL and two sacks, but he is doing his job and playing a role to help win games. If that means busting up blockers so that Pat Jasinski can swoop in and make the tackle, then he does it. 

The secondary may be the most talented and athletic position group on the team, but the linebacker corps is the heart and soul of the defense. Jasinski, Chequan Burkett, Griffin, and Titus Davis all have 24 or more tackles and have combined for 10.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks, Davis has not earned a sack on the season, but leads the team with five quarterback hits.

I could go on an on about Milton, but just look at what he has done so far this season. in 186 fewer pass attempts, he is only 261 yards behind last year's total. He has a completion percentage higher by nearly 12%, has six more touchdown passes than all last season, and has only been sacked three times. His rating is second in the nation behind Baker Mayfield, while also second in the nation in yards per attempt (11.4). In addition, Milton has taken more control of the entire offense as a sophomore, making a step that many did not think would come until his junior season. 

Remaining Schedule: 

• 10/28: Austin Peay
• 11/4: At SMU
• 11/11: UConn
• 11/18: At Temple
• 11/24: USF

Chance at undefeated: 45%. 

Which G5 Team Has The Best Shot At Going Undefeated?

By Brian Reading - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=35620815

We are nearly at the end of the early portion non-conference slate of the college football season. Some conferences, like the MAC, tend to play four early and then end the season with eight games from conference foes. Others, like the Sun Belt, tend to save a later date for a meeting with a member of a P5 conference (mostly the SEC).

By this point in the season, it becomes clear that a handful of teams have a legitimate shot and running the table and heading to an NY6 bowl with an undefeated record. Last season, it was Western Michigan. Other years, it has been Houston, Boise State, and even Utah back before they were a part of the Pac-12.

This year, we have a whole new crop of teams looking to accomplish that feat with each team holding a differing level of difficulty along the way. Let’s take a look at the remaining G5 undefeated teams and their chances at going undefeated.

• #22 San Diego State (3-0, 0-0 MWC): Not many of the national pundits gave the Aztecs a realistic shot of taking out Arizona State and Stanford in back to back weeks. Many of those same pundits picked Stanford to win the Pac-12 outright. Instead, SDSU is sitting at 3-0 with a real chance to run the table this year. The schedule is front-loaded with every one of their tough games coming before the 15^th of October. Coming up is a stretch that includes at Air Force, Northern Illinois, and Boise State. If they can get by a tough NIU squad and break their streak of losing at least one bad non-conference game, they could be the front-runners for an NY6 bowl. Assuming they can beat most likely Boise State in the MWC title game. Chance at undefeated: 60%.

.@Chargers It’s feels like San Diego has comfortably moved on without you. Good luck to you, wherever you end up. #GoAztecs pic.twitter.com/0OVdJxNtRI

— SDCCU Stadium (@SDCCUstadium) September 17, 2017

• #21 South Florida (3-0, 0-0 AAC): Until last week, the Bulls were playing below their level and struggled to win games they should have easily won. The game versus Illinois was a showing of just how good they can be if things are rolling. There is no marquee P5 game on the schedule and they miss out on Memphis and Navy in the regular season, making their strength of schedule weaker than SDSU. If Houston can get to the October 28^th matchup undefeated as well, then that could be the national coming up party for USF. Also, watch out for the season finale at UCF. Chance at undefeated: 62.5%.
• Navy (2-0, 1-0 AAC): Still early in the season for the Midshipmen, they have yet to meet the meat of their schedule. No offense to Tulane, but they are not yet among the elite of the AAC and Navy had quite a bit of trouble putting them away. September 30 starts a streak of at Tulsa, Air Force, at Memphis, and UCF. That doesn’t even factor in SMU, at Notre Dame, at Houston, or the season finale versus Army. You could easily make a case that Navy has the toughest G5 schedule in the nation left to play. Chance at undefeated: 3%.
• Houston (2-0, 0-0 AAC): The Cougars look to be back after a disappointing season last fall. They took out an improving Arizona on the road and destroyed Rice last week. They have their toughest test of the season on Saturday as the high-flying offense of Texas Tech comes to town. If they are able to get by that game, they still have SMU, at Tulsa, Memphis, at South Florida, and Navy left on the schedule. It is possible but tough to go through that streak without a letdown. Chance at undefeated: 20%.
• Memphis (2-0, 0-0 AAC): Just pump the breaks a little bit right now. The Tigers were in a very similar situation not all that long ago when they beat a highly ranked Ole Miss squad. After a win over Southern Illinois, they have a tough matchup at UCF before facing Navy, Houston, Tulsa, and SMU down the stretch. Chance at undefeated: 45%.
• Toledo (3-0, 0-0 MAC): There is no real use at talking about the Rockets running the table until they play on Saturday. Beating #14 Miami would legitimize them to the national media and put them on course to an undefeated season. If they get by Miami, facing Ball State on the road, NIU at home, and Ohio on the road in a three-week stretch is no joke. Add in a season finale versus WMU and the road to perfection is tough for Toledo. Chance at undefeated: 18%.
• Eastern Michigan (2-0, 0-0 MAC): Nothing against the Eagles, but beating Rutgers and Charlotte is not going to get very many people talking about a perfect season. Luckily, they have Ohio, Kentucky, Toledo, Army, and WMU in the next five weeks. If they are sitting at 7-0, then let’s talk. Chance at undefeated: 3%.
• UTSA (2-0, 0-0): There is quite a bit of talk coming from Texas that the Roadrunners could actually run the table this fall. They got a win over the P5 by defeating Baylor and easily handled Southern. It hurts that they will miss out on a visit from Houston, a game that would surely legitimize them in the minds of many. Instead, they will have to prove themselves in tough CUSA games like Southern Miss, North Texas, Marshall, and Louisiana Tech. Then, beating WKU, MTSU, or Old Dominion in the CUSA title game is asking a lot of a team that played in their first bowl game only last year. Chance at undefeated: 33.3%.
• UCF (1-0, 0-0): Of the teams that were hurt most from hurricane season, the Knights took a brunt of the effects. They are sitting at 1-0, but haven’t played since a season-opening blowout win over FIU on August 31. Unless they are able to add a game on October 28, they are looking at a 10-game schedule. Still, they have trips to Maryland, Navy, and SMU while Memphis and South Florida come to town. Chance at undefeated: 5%.