Which G5 Team Has The Best Shot At Going Undefeated?

By Brian Reading - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=35620815

We are nearly at the end of the early portion non-conference slate of the college football season. Some conferences, like the MAC, tend to play four early and then end the season with eight games from conference foes. Others, like the Sun Belt, tend to save a later date for a meeting with a member of a P5 conference (mostly the SEC).

By this point in the season, it becomes clear that a handful of teams have a legitimate shot and running the table and heading to an NY6 bowl with an undefeated record. Last season, it was Western Michigan. Other years, it has been Houston, Boise State, and even Utah back before they were a part of the Pac-12.

This year, we have a whole new crop of teams looking to accomplish that feat with each team holding a differing level of difficulty along the way. Let’s take a look at the remaining G5 undefeated teams and their chances at going undefeated.

• #22 San Diego State (3-0, 0-0 MWC): Not many of the national pundits gave the Aztecs a realistic shot of taking out Arizona State and Stanford in back to back weeks. Many of those same pundits picked Stanford to win the Pac-12 outright. Instead, SDSU is sitting at 3-0 with a real chance to run the table this year. The schedule is front-loaded with every one of their tough games coming before the 15^th of October. Coming up is a stretch that includes at Air Force, Northern Illinois, and Boise State. If they can get by a tough NIU squad and break their streak of losing at least one bad non-conference game, they could be the front-runners for an NY6 bowl. Assuming they can beat most likely Boise State in the MWC title game. Chance at undefeated: 60%.

.@Chargers It’s feels like San Diego has comfortably moved on without you. Good luck to you, wherever you end up. #GoAztecs pic.twitter.com/0OVdJxNtRI

— SDCCU Stadium (@SDCCUstadium) September 17, 2017

• #21 South Florida (3-0, 0-0 AAC): Until last week, the Bulls were playing below their level and struggled to win games they should have easily won. The game versus Illinois was a showing of just how good they can be if things are rolling. There is no marquee P5 game on the schedule and they miss out on Memphis and Navy in the regular season, making their strength of schedule weaker than SDSU. If Houston can get to the October 28^th matchup undefeated as well, then that could be the national coming up party for USF. Also, watch out for the season finale at UCF. Chance at undefeated: 62.5%.
• Navy (2-0, 1-0 AAC): Still early in the season for the Midshipmen, they have yet to meet the meat of their schedule. No offense to Tulane, but they are not yet among the elite of the AAC and Navy had quite a bit of trouble putting them away. September 30 starts a streak of at Tulsa, Air Force, at Memphis, and UCF. That doesn’t even factor in SMU, at Notre Dame, at Houston, or the season finale versus Army. You could easily make a case that Navy has the toughest G5 schedule in the nation left to play. Chance at undefeated: 3%.
• Houston (2-0, 0-0 AAC): The Cougars look to be back after a disappointing season last fall. They took out an improving Arizona on the road and destroyed Rice last week. They have their toughest test of the season on Saturday as the high-flying offense of Texas Tech comes to town. If they are able to get by that game, they still have SMU, at Tulsa, Memphis, at South Florida, and Navy left on the schedule. It is possible but tough to go through that streak without a letdown. Chance at undefeated: 20%.
• Memphis (2-0, 0-0 AAC): Just pump the breaks a little bit right now. The Tigers were in a very similar situation not all that long ago when they beat a highly ranked Ole Miss squad. After a win over Southern Illinois, they have a tough matchup at UCF before facing Navy, Houston, Tulsa, and SMU down the stretch. Chance at undefeated: 45%.
• Toledo (3-0, 0-0 MAC): There is no real use at talking about the Rockets running the table until they play on Saturday. Beating #14 Miami would legitimize them to the national media and put them on course to an undefeated season. If they get by Miami, facing Ball State on the road, NIU at home, and Ohio on the road in a three-week stretch is no joke. Add in a season finale versus WMU and the road to perfection is tough for Toledo. Chance at undefeated: 18%.
• Eastern Michigan (2-0, 0-0 MAC): Nothing against the Eagles, but beating Rutgers and Charlotte is not going to get very many people talking about a perfect season. Luckily, they have Ohio, Kentucky, Toledo, Army, and WMU in the next five weeks. If they are sitting at 7-0, then let’s talk. Chance at undefeated: 3%.
• UTSA (2-0, 0-0): There is quite a bit of talk coming from Texas that the Roadrunners could actually run the table this fall. They got a win over the P5 by defeating Baylor and easily handled Southern. It hurts that they will miss out on a visit from Houston, a game that would surely legitimize them in the minds of many. Instead, they will have to prove themselves in tough CUSA games like Southern Miss, North Texas, Marshall, and Louisiana Tech. Then, beating WKU, MTSU, or Old Dominion in the CUSA title game is asking a lot of a team that played in their first bowl game only last year. Chance at undefeated: 33.3%.
• UCF (1-0, 0-0): Of the teams that were hurt most from hurricane season, the Knights took a brunt of the effects. They are sitting at 1-0, but haven’t played since a season-opening blowout win over FIU on August 31. Unless they are able to add a game on October 28, they are looking at a 10-game schedule. Still, they have trips to Maryland, Navy, and SMU while Memphis and South Florida come to town. Chance at undefeated: 5%.