Which Teams Have The Best Shot Going To The CUSA Title Game?

By Patrick M. McLeod - http://www.flickr.com/photos/misternaxal/1880129223/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7889392

Halloween week has descended upon college football, so now is as good of a time as ever to take a look at Conference USA standings and how things shaking out. It has been an interesting season to this point with multiple plot twists worthy of a blockbuster movie. Could you have imagined that FAU would look dominant in conference play while preseason west favorites UTSA and Louisiana Tech sit on the outside looking in at this point in the season?

Speaking of preseason favorites, which teams were picked by the media to take each division?

• College Football News: MTSU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)
• USA Today: WKU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)
• Athlon: WKU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)
• CUSA Media Poll: WKU (East), Louisiana Tech (West)

How do those predictions look at this point in the season?

East Division:

Contenders: FAU, Marshall, WKU, FIU (technically).

Pretenders: MTSU, Charlotte, Old Dominion.

• Florida International (4-2, 2-1 CUSA): The Panthers have been a bit of a surprise this season under Butch Davis. They have to only win two of their final six games to become bowl eligible, an accomplishment for the ages considering the last few years. That aside, FIU is still in the running for the east with only one loss (MTSU) in conference play. They have yet to play the meat of their CUSA schedule with trips to Marshall and FAU while hosting Marshall, UTSA, ODU, and WKU. Already a game behind FAU and Marshall in the loss column, they would likely need to sweep their four remaining east opponents. Otherwise, it would take too many tiebreakers falling in their favor to have a shot at the division. Chance of winning the east: 1%.
• Western Kentucky (5-2, 3-1 CUSA): The Hilltoppers are an incredibly tough team to figure out. They are 5-2 and barring a letdown for the ages, will get to six wins and another bowl game. Their one loss in CUSA play was versus a west opponent, taking most tiebreakers from that specific game off the table. Running the table would give WKU yet another east division title, but they have FAU and Marshall sandwiched between a trip to Vanderbilt, making that goal just a bit harder. Lose to either FAU or Marshall and WKU is almost completely out of title game hopes, barring multiple teams finishing with the same record. Basically, sweep FAU and Marshall and the path is clear. Chance of winning the east: 20%.
• Florida Atlantic (4-3, 3-0 CUSA): Credit has to be given to Lane Kiffin and company for turning a team that looked in trouble after week four into a potential division winner. Sitting at 3-0 after a big win over North Texas, the Owls face a make or break section of their season. Trips to WKU and Louisiana Tech sandwich a visit from Marshall and the Owls could be cruising to a division title if they go 3-0. Winning two of three would almost certainly put them within reach of the title if those two wins are against WKU and Marshall. That would give them the tiebreaker over both teams with only FIU and Charlotte left on the schedule. TL;DR: Beat WKU and Marshall and you will almost certainly win the division. Chance of winning the east: 45%.
• Marshall (6-1, 3-0 CUSA): After an ugly win over Charlotte to start CUSA play, the Thundering Herd have rolled to a 3-0 conference record and overall bowl eligibility. They will be heavy favorites over FIU on Saturday, knocking FIU out of division title contention and setting up a huge four-game end to the season. With UTSA and Southern Miss still left from the west, while also facing WKU and FAU from the east, Marshall by far has the toughest end to the season. As with WKU and FAU, pulling the sweep over the other two would put them in a great spot to win the division and head to the CUSA title game. A loss to either opens the door to losing via tiebreaker, so we have to wait until October 11 to figure out Marshall’s true fate. Chance of winning the east: 34%.

West Division:

Contenders: North Texas, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, UTSA, UAB (technically).

Pretenders: UTEP, Rice.

• Louisiana Tech (3-4, 1-2 CUSA): Despite sitting at 1-2 in conference play and a devastating loss to Southern Miss to rebound from, there is still hope in Ruston. As with any two-loss team, running the table is almost the only way to win the division. That includes beating Rice, North Texas, FAU, UTEP, and UTSA. Doing that alone would knock every other contender except UAB and Southern Miss from contention. La Tech would then need the Blazers to lose one game down the stretch and Southern Miss lose two games. Another long shot possibility. Chance of winning the east: 8%.
• UAB (4-3, 2-2 CUSA): I am not saying that the Blazers hopes of winning the division went up in smoke on Saturday, but basically they did. The first thing that has to happen is beating Southern Miss, Rice, UTSA, and UTEP. That would put them at 6-2 in the division, a game ahead of UTSA, and a tiebreaker winner over Southern Miss. In addition, they would need two losses by North Texas. That is a tough request considering UNT’s schedule down the stretch. Chance of winning the west: 1%.
• UTSA (4-2, 1-2 CUSA): Football is a game of inches and no truer is the case than with the Roadrunners. A play here or a tackle there and they are sitting pretty and rolling to a division title. Instead, they are sitting at 1-2 in CUSA play and need Southern Miss and North Texas to both lose 2+ games down the stretch. They also need to take care of business and beat UTEP, FIU, UAB, Marshall, and Louisiana Tech to end up at 6-2 in CUSA play. That is asking quite a bit and adding what they need from USM and UNT is almost asking the impossible. Chance of winning the west: 3%.
• Southern Miss (5-2, 3-1 CUSA): The Golden Eagles are the only team other than North Texas that has a high chance at winning the division. They have a very winnable final three games (UAB, Rice, Charlotte) before facing Marshall in the regular season finale. If North Texas loses down the stretch and is sitting one game behind USM, then the Marshall game becomes everything. A win would give them the west. I know it sounds sacrilegious, but Southern Miss fans must root for Louisiana Tech when they face North Texas on November 4. Chance of winning the west: 41%.
• North Texas (4-3, 3-1 CUSA): Considering they took one of the worst beatings in school history, hope is still alive for the Mean Green. Honestly, nearly everything else within division fell perfectly to give them a chance at the west division crown. They have played the hardest part of their in-conference slate and should cruise wins over Old Dominion, UTEP, and Rice. The game that could decide which team represents the east will be played on November 4 in Ruston, Louisiana. A win over the Bulldogs and a sweep of the dregs of the conference this year guarantees UNT a spot in the title game. Chance of winning the west: 47%.

CUSA title game prediction as of today (10/22/17): Marshall vs. North Texas.