Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State versus SMU

SHERATON HAWAI‘I BOWL: FRESNO STATE (9-3, 7-1 MW) VS. SMU (6-6, 5-3 C-USA)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 24 • 3 P.M. HT • ESPN

Series:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fresno State leads 5-1

Last meeting:  . . . Oct. 30, 2004: FS 42-0 in Fresno, Calif.

Bowl Website:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . SheratonHawaiiBowl.com

Twitter:  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . @HawaiiBowl

Facebook:  . . . . . . . . . Facebook.com/SheratonHawaiiBow

Date: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mon., Dec. 24, 2012

Time:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 p.m. HT

Stadium (Capacity):  . . . . . . . . . . . . Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium (50,000)

Field Surface: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Synthetic Infilled Turf

City:  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Honolulu, Hawaii

Network:  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ESPN

This matchup pits the 9-3 Fresno State Bulldogs led by quarterback Derek Carr, brother of former #1 NFL pick Davis Carr, versus the 6-6 Southern Methodist Mustangs led by running back Zach Line. Fresno State lead the all time series 5-1 including a 42-0 win in 2004 in their last meeting.

OFFENSE:

Fresno State is scary on offense to say the least. The Bulldogs, led by Carr, put up 40.3 points per game offensively with the 14th ranked offense in the nation. The Bulldogs put up 488 yards per game with 322 coming in the air and 166 coming on the ground. Carr is the star of this offense and a 2nd team All-NQ pick at quarterback with 3742 yards in the air and 36 touchdowns compared to only 5 interceptions. Carr has completed 68% of his passes while leading his team to at least 20 point in 11 of 12 games. Carr threw for 300+ yards 5 times with a season high of 536 yards in the air versus San Diego State. With the lack of quarterback depth in the upcoming draft, Carr may declare early and be an early draft pick but I wouldn't be surprised for the junior to come back for his senior season. With such a strong passing game, many teams would be light in the rushing game but the Bulldogs have a 1400 yards rusher in senior running back Robbie Rouse. Rouse has 12 touchdowns on the ground this season and 37 for his career as well as over 4600 yards on the ground and three 1000 yards seasons. The third player of Fresno State's trifecta of great players is freshman Davante Adams who caught 89 passes for 1168 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season and has a realistic chance to reach 100 catches on the season after two double digit catch games on the season. The offensive line responsible for this incredible offense has only two senior starters (Richard Helepiko at center and Matt Hunt at left guard) with a freshman starting at the right tackle spot. This offense could be nearly unstoppable in year two under coach Tim DeRuyter with all of the returning parts from the 14th ranked offense of 2012.

Southern Methodist is just nowhere near as explosive offensively as Fresno State but Coach June Jones brings an offense that can score points from time to time. SMU ends the regular season as the 95th ranked team offensively with only 366 yards of total offense per game. The Mustangs put up 237 yards in the air per game but only 129 yards on the ground. The Mustangs are led by running back Zach Line who ran for just over 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns in an injury plagued senior season. Line has over 4100 yards on the ground for his career and 46 touchdowns and would be a top level NFL draft prospect save his injury issues. Line should still be able to make an impact on the next level if he can stay healthy. At quarterback is a name that may ring some bells... Garrett Gilbert. Gilbert is a former Texas transfer who was the quarterback for the Longhorns in the National Title game loss to Alabama. Gilbert later lost his starting job and transferred to SMU to play under Coach Jones. Gilbert struggled during a disappointing junior campaign to 2700 yards passing and 14 touchdowns but with 13 interceptions. When Gilbert does pass the ball, it is very likely that the ball will be heading to either Jeremy or Darius Johnson who have combined for 128 catches for 1426 yards but only 7 touchdowns. The Johnson boys were accountable for over 50% of Gilbert's passing yards on the season. With 6 senior starters on offense, expect the Mustangs to give Fresno State everything they have to secure a winning record in their final season for SMU.

Advantage: Fresno State. The Carr-Rouse-Adams combo gave fits to some of the best teams in the nation and has been on a tear since a 20-10 loss to Boise State with at least 42 points in each of the last 5 games of the season. Expect more offensive fireworks from the Bulldogs in what could be a Christmas Eve showcase for the Bulldogs heading into the 2013 season.

Fresno State:

Quarterback #4 Derek Carr (6-3, 210, Jr.)--MWC Offensive Player of the Year, 1st team All-MWC, 2nd Team All-NQ.

Running Back #8 Robbie Rouse (5-7, 190, Sr.)--1st Team All-MWC.

Left Tackle #72 Austin Wentworth (6-5, 299, Jr.)--1st Team All-MWC.

Left Guard #55 Matt Hunt (6-2, 315, Sr.)

Center #78 Richard Helepiko (6-2, 302, Sr.)

Right Guard #73 Cody Wichmann (6-6, 318, So.)

Right Tackle #76 Alex Fifita (6-4, 290, Fr.)              

TE #89 Marcel Jensen (6-6, 257, Jr.)

WR #81 Justin Johnson (6-1, 185, Fr.)

WR #1 Isaiah Burse (6-0, 179, Jr.)

WR #11 Rashad Evans (5-9, 187, Sr.)

WR #15 Davante Adams (6-2, 200, R-Fr.)--MWC Freshman of the Year. 1st Team All-MWC.

SMU:

Quarterback #11 - Garrett Gilbert (6-4, 220, JR-TR, Austin, Texas)

Running Back #48 - Zach Line (6-1, 230, SR-3L, Oxford, Mich.)--1st Team All-MWC. 

Left Tackle #72 - Ben Gottschalk (6-5, 275, JR-2L, Sherman Oaks, Calif.)

Left Guard #78 - Jordan Free (6-2, 311, SR-2L, Baton Rouge, La.)

Center #52 - Taylor Lasecki (6-3, 288, FR-RS, Frisco, Texas)

Right Guard #63 - Blake McJunkin (6-2, 295, SR-3L, Plano, Texas)

Right Tackle #67 - Bryan Collins (6-3, 313, SR-3L, Keller, Texas)--2nd Team All-CUSA

Wide Receiver - X #7 - Der’rikk Thompson (5-11, 190, SO-1L, Troup, Texas)

Wide Receiver - H #3 - Darius Johnson (5-10, 175, SR-2L, Missouri City, Texas)--2nd Team All-CUSA

Wide Receiver - Y #15 - Jeremy Johnson (6-0, 175, JR-1L, Tyler, Texas)

Wide Receiver - Z #18 - Austin Fuller (6-2, 220, SR-TR, Richlands, Va.)

Defense:

While Fresno State has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, they are no slouch on defense with the 19th nationally ranked defense in total yards allowed per game giving up only 335 yards per game on the season. The Bulldogs have given up 35 total touchdowns good for less than 3 per game ranking them 27th nationally with 22.2 points allowed per game.  Fresno is a big play defense with an astounding 85 tackles for loss and 33 turnovers forced on the season including 20 interceptions on the year. The Bulldogs are not very big up front and teams have the ability to run on the as evidenced by the 171 yards rushing by opponents per game and 18 touchdowns. The Bulldogs make up for the lack of rush defense with a pass defense that makes plays all over the field. Fresno gets to the quarterback about 3 times per game with 35 total sacks on the season made by 20 different players total. The Bulldogs get off the field 67.2% of the time on third downs and rank 4th nationally in pass defense giving up a paltry 165 yards per game in the air. 
While the defense in general is very good, three players stand out as the stars of the Bulldog defense. Safety Phillip Thomas was the MWC defensive player of the year this season Non-AQ All American, and NCA All-American with 82 tackles, 12 of them for loss, 4 sacks, 8 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, and 3 defensive touchdowns. Thomas has NFL first round potential and should be drafted no later than the 3rd round with concerns from his previous injuries in 2011. Fellow safety Derron Smith added another 6 interceptions for the Bulldog defense and made 72 tackles over 8 game to finish the season second on the team in tackles. Smith was a First Team All-MWC selection in 2012. Rounding out the terrifying three from the Bulldog defense is nose guard Andy Jennings. Jennings ended the season with 32 tackles, 11 for loss, 5.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. Jennings was also a 1st Team All-MWC selection. 

While not being able to stack up to the Bulldogs defensively, the Mustangs are not terrible on defense. The Mustangs are middle of the pack in total defense giving up 400 yards per game ranking them 64th nationally. The Mustangs gave up 42 total touchdowns and a nationally 57th best 27 points per game allowing them to hang in on games nearly every week. SMU got in the backfield decently with 60 tackles for loss on the season but only 17 sacks. The Mustangs struggled against the pass giving up 271 yards in the air ranking them in the bottom 20 nationally in that category but made up for it with a strong rush defense and ability to force turnovers. SMU held opponents to only 129 yards on the ground in 2012 and only 14 touchdowns. Not many teams were able to find regular success against the Mustang front. The biggest positive for the Mustangs on defense was a knack for forcing turnovers. The Mustangs finished tied with Fresno at 3rd nationally with 33 forced turnovers on the season. The Mustangs gave up points but found ways to get the ball back to the offense and even score on their own. 

Advantage: Fresno State. While SMU is one of the best teams in the nation at stopping the run and forcing turnovers, the Bulldogs of Fresno State are a much more rounded defense with one of the best defensive players in the nation on the back end with safety Phillip Thomas.

Fresno State:

End #52 Nikko Motta (6-2, 285, Jr.)

Nose Guard #92 Tyeler Davison (6-2, 311, So.)--1st Team All-MWC.

End #98 Andy Jennings (6-2, 278, Jr.)--2nd Team All-MWC.

Outside LB #88 Tristan Okpalaugo (6-6, 250, Sr.)

Mike (Middle LB) #9 Travis Brown (6-1, 236, Sr.)--2nd Team All-MWC.

Will (Middle LB) #32 Jeremiah Toma (6-0, 230, Jr.)

Outside LB #27 Donavon Lewis (6-2, 240, So.)

Cornerback #6 L.J. Jones (5-10, 180, Jr.)

Safety #16 Phillip Thomas (6-1, 215, Sr.)--MWC Defensive Player of the Year. 1st Team All-MWC.

Safety #13 Derron Smith (5-11, 194, R-So.)--1st Team All-MWC.

Cornerback #18  Sean Alston (5-10, 192, So.)

SMU:

Left Defensive End #90 - Kevin Grenier (6-5, 280, SR-3L, Tucson, Ariz.)

Nose #91 - Torlan Pittman (6-1, 285, SR-3L, Bryan, Texas)

Right Defensive End #92 - Margus Hunt (6-8, 275, SR-3L, Karski-Nuia, Estonia)--1st Team All-CUSA. 

SAM Linebacker #23 - Stephon Sanders (6-3, 235, SO-1L, Mesquite, Texas)

BUCK Linebacker #5 - Randall Joyner (5-10, 228, JR-2L, Carrollton, Texas)

MIKE Linebacker #44 - Taylor Reed (6-0, 240, SR-3L, Beaumont, Texas)--2nd Team All-CUSA

WILL Linebacker #56 - Ja’gared Davis (6-1, 235, SR-3L, Crockett, Texas)--1st Team All-CUSA

Left Cornerback #1 - Chris Parks (6-1, 185, JR-2L, Conroe, Texas)

Strong Safety #28 - Shakiel Randolph (6-5, 190, FR-HS, Waco, Texas)

Free Safety #8 - Jay Scott (6-1, 210, JR-2L, Houston, Texas)

Right Cornerback #21 - Kenneth Acker (6-0, 195, JR-2L, Portland, Ore.)--2nd Team All-CUSA

Special Teams:

Southern Methodist is nearly as average as a team can be on special teams with 0 return touchdowns, no game changing plays, but jut solid play. The Mustangs average nearly 9 yards per punt return while allowing just over 9 yards per punt return.  Kickoffs are also nearly even giving and taking for the Mustangs. SMU returns for 23 yards per kickoff while allowing 21 yards per return. The biggest special teams deficiency for the Mustangs is with field goal kicking as kicker Chase Hover has connected on 16-26 field goals but only 2-8 form over 40 yards with 3 kicks blocked. 40.5% of the Mustang kickoffs are not returned taking away a large group of explosive players on opposing teams. SMU punts the ball well with a 41.6 yards per punt average and 10 booming over 50 yards on the season.

Fresno State counters with a very similar special teams that has made a few more positive plays this season than SMU. The Bulldogs return punts for a 9.1 yard per return average with one being returned for a touchdown while allowing 8.6 per return from opponents. Kickoff returns are also in Fresno State's favor with the Bulldogs returning for 21.4 yards per kickoff and allowing only 19.6 yards per return to opponents. The field goal game team was not overly tested as the Bulldogs only tried 2 kicks from over 40 yards going 1-2 with a long of 43 yards. Kicker Quentin Breshears went 11-14 overall with a 10-12 kicking accuracy from within 40 yards. Kicking off only saw 26.2% of kicks go for touchbacks but with the kickoff team holding opponents to under 20 yards per return, that was a moot point. Punting was solid for the Bulldogs with a 41.5 yards per punt average, 13 punts landing inside the 20 yard line and 13 punts going over 50 yards on the season.

Advantage: Fresno State. The Bulldogs were able to make the bigger plays on special teams with a punt return for a touchdown and the better kickoff coverage team. The Bulldogs were also better with their kicker understanding his limits and not attempting too many field goals that the kicker couldn't make.

Fresno State:

Place Kicker #47 Quentin Breshears (6-1, 188, RFr.)

Kickoffs   #99 Garrett Swanson (6-0, 205, Fr.)

Punter #34 Andrew Shapiro (6-0, 193, Sr.)

Long Snapper #57 Chad Preacher (5-10, 201, Jr.)

Holder #34 Andrew Shapiro (6-0, 193, Sr.)

Kick Returner #1 isaiah Burse (6-0, 179, Jr.)

Punt Returner #11 Rashad Evans (5-9, 187, Sr.)

SMU:

Place Kicker #42 - Chase Hover (6-2, 195, JR-1L, Plano, Texas)

Kickoffs/Punter #99 - Mike Loftus (6-1, 200, SO-1L, Anaheim, Calif.)

Holder #22 - Hayden Greenbauer (6-0, 210, SO-SQ, San Antonio, Texas)

Deep Snapper #53 - Mark Voosen (6-2, 225, SR-3L, New Braunfels, Texas)

Punt Returner #3 - Darius Johnson (5-10, 175, SR-2L, Missouri City, Texas)

Kickoff Returns #7 - Der’rikk Thompson (5-11, 190, SO-1L, Troup, Texas)

Overall: Fresno State is a better team than Southern Methodist in every aspect of the game with more playmakers on both sides of the ball and just better overall talent. With losses only coming to Oregon, Tulsa and Boise State, the Bulldogs could be disappointed with this bowl placement and come out flat versus SMU. Fresno coming out flat and not ready to play is the only hope for June Jones and his Mustangs but expect the Bulldogs to use this as a coming out party for the Carr to Adams connection that has been lighting up college football all year long.

Prediction: Fresno State 48, SMU 21.