A look at the schools that are overlooked by the ESPNs of the world.


Sunday, July 5, 2015

Week One Friday night Group of Five vs. Power Five matchups

The second official night of FBS football involves five games that match up Group of Five teams versus Power 5 teams. Of those five games, four will be hosted by Group of Five teams with Western Michigan hosting Michigan State, Hawaii hosting Colorado, Boise State hosting Washington, and SMU hosting Baylor.


FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4: 
Michigan State @ Western Michigan (ESPNU): In a matchup of bowl teams from the Big Ten and MAC, Michigan State and Western Michigan meet for the 14th time all-time. The Spartans lead the overall series 11-2 with a nine-game winning streak over the Broncos. The two teams have faced off twice since 2010 with the Spartans winning 38-14 in 2010 and 26-13 in 2013. Western Michigan, coming off of an 8-5 season that ended in a trip to the Potato Bowl, brings in the 35th ranked passing and 57th ranked rushing offenses in the nation and an offense that put up 33.8 points per game in 2014. The Broncos allowed only 24.9 points per game, good for 43rd nationally. WMU brings a QB that threw for 3,100+ yards and a running back that rushed for 1,500+ yards in 2014. Michigan State comes off of an 11-2 season that ended with a 42-41 win in the Cotton Bowl. The Spartans had one of their best seasons offensively in 2014 with the 36th ranked passing game, the 21st ranked rushing attack, and the seventh highest scoring average in the nation. Michigan State was also excellent on defense with a 21.5 points allowed per game average in 2014. WMU should be able to hang tough for the first half in front of its home crowd but will wear down versus the physical offensive and defensive lines of the Spartans.
Kent State @ Illinois (BTN): Coming off of a 2-9 season that saw the Golden Flashes struggle on both sides of the football, Kent State starts the 2014 season on a Friday night at Big 10 foe Illinois. This is the first meeting between the two programs but the Golden Flashes are familiar with Big 10 programs with a 1-14 overall record versus the conference. The lone win was in 2012 at Rutgers. Do not expect to see impressive rushing attacks from either program as Kent State rushes for 81.8 yards per game and Illinois rushed for 117.5 yards per game, both good for the bottom 25 nationally in rushing yards per game. The Golden Flashes threw for 233.6 yards per game but could only muster 16.4 points per game, good for 123rd nationally. Illinois was slightly better passing at 249.8 yards in the air per game but scored nearly 10 points more per contest at 25.9 points per game. Both teams were in the tail end of the nation in scoring defense as well with Kent State holding the advantage in giving up 29 points per game compared to 34 points allowed per game by Illinois. Expect Kent State to be able to move the ball in the air versus Illinois but still struggle to put points on the board and end up losing in ugly fashion to the Fighting Illini.
Colorado @ Hawaii (CBS Sports Network): Playing for the fourth time since 2010, Hawaii and Colorado are both looking to get back to the postseason after neither team coming particularly close in 2014. This will be the fifth overall meeting between the two schools with the previous four games being split 2-2. The first meeting was in 1925 but the last three have been in 2010 (Colorado 31, Hawaii 13), 2011 (Hawaii 34, Colorado 17), and 2014 (Colorado 21, Hawaii 12). The Buffaloes come into the 2015 season with the 20th ranked passing offense from last fall at 284.6 points per game but were much farther down the last rushing the ball at 154.6 (77th) with 28.5 points scored per game. Colorado was terrible on defense, giving up 39 points per game with the Hawaii game being the only time the Buffaloes holding an opponents under 30 points in 2014. The Rainbow Warriors have been unable to find a good offensive flow under head coach Norm Chow and struggled again in 2014 with the 81st ranked passing attack and the 85th ranked rushing attack while only scoring 20.9 points per game, good for 111th nationally last fall. Hawaii was much better on defense in allowing 26.8 points per game in 2014. Expect a little more scoring from both teams with Hawaii hosting this season but I can't see any scenario that this will be a fun game to watch. Colorado should pull it out by a similar margin to the 2014 game.
Washington @ Boise State (ESPN): Boise State, the darlings of Group of Five football, welcome back former head coach Chris Petersen after Petersen took the Washington job following the 2013 football season. The two programs have faced off three times previously with Washington holdin a 2-1 advantage overall. The two wins, in 2007 and 2013, came in Seattle while the only home/neutral site game, the 2012 Las Vegas Bowl, saw Boise State win 28-26. Boise State is coming off a 12-2 season that ended in another Fiesta Bowl win, its third time winning the coveted bowl game. The Broncos are missing several important pieces from a 2014 team that had the 24th ranked passing attack (280.4 ypg), the 31st ranked rushing attack (213.9 ypg) and the ninth ranked scoring offense in the nation at 39.7 points per game. The Boise State defense wasn't quite as excellent as in previous years but only gave up 26.8 points per game. Washington was not quite to the levels of Boise State but put up 200.1 yards in the air and 188.6 yards on the ground with the 57th ranked scoring offense in the nation (30.2 ppg). The Huskie defense gave up only 24.8 points per game with 9 opponents scoring 20 or fewer points. Boise State should win IF they can handle new starters at quarterback and running back and that is a huge if.
Baylor @ SMU (ESPN): Old time Southwest Conference foes SMU and Baylor meet for the 81st game all-time this this season with Baylor holding the overall series lead 37-36-7. The Bears have won the last 11 meetings including the four meetings in the 2000s (2003, 2005, 2012, 2014). To put it nicely, SMU was bad in 2014 in going 1-11 with its only win over UConn in the season finale. The Mustangs had the 114th ranked passing attack (168.7 ypg), the 121st ranked rushing attack (100.3 ypg), and the last ranked scoring offense in the nation at a paltry 11.1 points per game in 2014. As bad as SMU was on offense, it was just as bad on defense in giving up 41.3 points per game. On the other end of the spectrum is Baylor and its 4th ranked passing offense (365.9 ypg), 29th ranked rushing offense (215.5 ypg), and 1st ranked scoring offense in the nation (48.2 ppg). The Bears were markedly better on defense in 2014 with a defense that allowed only 25.5 ponts per game in 2014. Despite replacing 3,300 yard passer Bryce Petty, Baylor should score early and often versus SMU and this game will get ugly fast.

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