2015 AAC predictions

Here are my American Athletic Conference Predictions.

EAST DIVISION

1. Cincinnati: (9-4, 7-1 American): The Bearcats were very good on offense in 2014 behind the passing of quarterback Gunner Kiel. Cincinnati finished the season second in the AAC in total offense (460.2 ypg) and third in scoring offense at 34.0 ppg. The Cincinnati offensive line is the strength with First Team All-AAC members Parker Ehinger and Eric Lefeld back this fall. Defense is still an issue after giving up 27.2 points per game and 439.1 yards per game. 
2. Central Florida: (9-4, 7-1 American): The Knight won a share of the AAC title in 2014 behind one of the better defenses in the nation. UCF was top two in the AAC in total defense at 298.5 ypg and scoring defense at 19.2 points per game but the offense made the biggest play of the season, a 51-yard Hail Mary that defeated East Carolina and earned the Knights the co-championship. Offensively, the Knights have room to improve with the sixth ranked total offense in the AAC as well as the fifth ranked scoring offense. Lots of defensive players are missing from 2014 so the offense will need to step up early.   
3. East Carolina: (8-5, 5-3 American): The Pirates are coming off of a disappointing 8-5 season that showed significant promise early in the year with wins over North Carolina and Virginia Tech. ECU had the top ranked offense in the AAC at 533.0 yards per game and the second ranked scoring offense at 35.8 points per game. The defense, led by inside linebacker Zach Bigger, was top five in the AAC with 367.3 yards allowed per game and 25.8 points allowed per game. Mistakes like giving up a 51-yard Hail Mary in a last second loss to UCF were the downfall for ECU in 2014. Despite losing Carden and Hardy on offense, the Pirates have a higher upside on defense and could make a run at the East Division crown.
4. Temple: (6-6, 4-4 American): The Owls were as big of a surprise for their very impressive defense as they were for their terrible offense. Temple was in the top three in the AAC in total defense at 347.1 yards allowed per game and first in scoring defense at 17.5 points allowed per game. Linebacker Tyler Matakevich put up his third consecutive 100+ tackle season and should be one of the elite few FBS players to break the 400 tackle plateau and also make 100+ tackles in each of his four seasons. The offense must get better after a 23.1 ppg and 308.4 ypg season that would have ranked them lower if not for some historically bad AAC offenses. 
5. South Florida: (4-8, 3-5 American): 2015 is a put up or shut up season for the Bulls with head coach Willie Taggart bringing in several quality recruits but unable to show results on the field. One of those recruits is sophomore running back Marlon Mack, the AAC's leading rusher as a freshman. Mack should continue his positive play and help an offense that finished ninth in the AAC with 304.7 ypg and eight with 17.2 ppg in 2014. A step forward on defense could also give the Bulls hope for a bowl trip this fall. 
6. Connecticut: (2-10, 1-7 American): The 2014 season cemented the Huskies as one of the worst teams in all of FBS football with a 2-10 season and a loss to lowly SMU in the season finale. The Huskies finshed 10th in total offense (276.8 ypg) and scoring offense (15.5 ppg) and need some sort of stability at quarterback after using three last fall. The defense has a shot as improvement after finishing sixth in the AAC with 378.4 ypg and ninth with 29.8 ppg allowed per game. 

WEST DIVISION

1. Memphis: (10-3, 7-1 American): The Tigers were a bit of a surprise in 2014 in route to a share of the AAC title along with Cincinnati and Central Florida. Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch put himself into the category of one of the best in the AAC in leading the Tigers to 427.1 ypg and 36.2 ppg, the latter being tops in the AAC. As good as the offense was last fall, the defense was even better, ranking in the top three in the AAC in total defense (349.5 ypg) and scoring defense (19.5 ppg). The Tigers return several players from last year's AAC co-championship and should compete with Houston and Navy for the West Division title.
2. Navy: (8-5): The Midshipmen, led by quarterback Keenan Reynolds, had an up and down 2014 season that started slowly but ended in winning six of their last seven games to finish 8-5. Navy faced one AAC team in Temple and came away with a 31-24 win over the Owls, one of Temple's worst defensive performances of the season. Navy will always be the most disciplined team on the field any given week but will be playing in the AAC for the first time. The Midshipmen could just as easily win the West Division as finish fourth but second seems like a nice spot for them this fall.
3. Houston: (8-5, 5-3): The Cougars are coming off of one of the craziest ending to a crazy bowl season in recovering two onside kicks and overcoming a 31-6 fourth quarter deficit to stun Pittsburgh 35-34. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. started the season at wide receiver but found his come at quarterback in leading the COugars to 406.8 yards per game and 29.8 points per game. Ward should be even better with an offseason in the books as the starter. New head coach Tom Herman inherits a defense that finshed second in the AAC in yards allowed per game at 341.0 and fourth in scoring defense at 20.6 points allowed per game. 
4. Tulane: (3-9, 2-6 American): It's hard to believe that the Green Wave are only two years from a bowl berth after last season's 3-9 mark. Tulane was seventh or worse in total offense (344.2 ypg), total defense (379.9 ypg), scoring offense (16.0 ppg), and scoring defense (28.4 ppg). The Green Wave should be better this fall but anything higher than a fourth place finish in the AAC West Division would be quite a surprise. 
5. Tulsa: (2-10, 2-6 American): The Golden Hurricanes were pretty good on offense and terrible on defense last fall. Tulsa was fourth in the AAC with 412.5 yards per game and sixth with 24. points per game but gave up 486.8 yards per game and 39.2 points per game, both 10th best in the AAC. Wide receiver Keevan Lucas broke the 100 reception mark last fall and should be in line to break it again. Former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery is the new head coach. 
6. Southern Methodist (1-11, 1-7 American): To say that SMU was bad last fall is an understatement. The Mustangs finished the 2014 season 1-11 with only a win over UConn to show for the season. SMU finished the season ranked dead last in the AAC in total offense (269.0 ypg), total defense (499.4 ypg), scoring offense (11.1 ppg), and scoring defense (41.3 ppg). The -30.2 scoring margin was the worst in the FBS last season.  Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris its new head coach.

American Title Game: 

• Cincinnati versus Memphis

American Champions: 

• Cincinnati

American Bowl Projections: 

• Birmingham Bowl: CINCINNATI vs. SEC 
• St. Petersburg Bowl: CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. Conference USA
• Miami Beach Bowl: MEMPHIS vs. Conference USA
• Military Bowl: NAVY vs. ACC
• Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: HOUSTON vs. Mountain West
• Boca Raton Bowl: EAST CAROLINA vs. MAC
• Cure Bowl: TEMPLE vs. Sun Belt