10. Northern Illinois--The Huskies are coming off of one of the best
few years of football ending with the graduation of record setting quarterback
Chandler Harnish. The Huskies ended 2011 at 11-3 including an impressive 9-game
winning streak to end the season. Every time the Huskies get counted out and
told that it is someone else's turn to take control, NIU finds a way to surpass
expectations once again.
9. Houston--In similar fashion to the #10 ranked NIU Huskies, the
Houston Cougars start 2012 trying to replace a legend at quarterback. Case
Keenum departed the Cougars with 19,217 yards passing and 155 touchdowns in his
career. Those numbers are nearly impossible to account for. The Cougars did get
a taste of life without Keenum as he missed nearly all of the 2011 season with
a knee injury. Houston went 5-7 and missed a bowl but were able to find out how
to handle the team Post-Keenum. The Cougars break in Tony Levine who took over
the team to win the Ticket City bowl and earn the head coaching job with the
departure of Kevin Sumlin.
8. Toledo--The Rockets were so close to making some major noise in 2011
but missed out on several opportunities to make a name nationally. Toledo ended
the 2011 season at 9-4 with 3 of the 4 losses coming by a combined 11 points.
The Rockers were one of the most exciting teams in the country with 42.2 points
scored per game while allowing 31.7 points per game. The Rockets were a part of
games that ended with 63-60 and 66-63 scores in consecutive weeks. The Rockets
also scored at least 42 points in their final 6 games of the season. Toledo
must figure out how to replace Adonis Thomas at running back and Eric Page at
wide receiver to prove they are worthy of their high ranking to start the
season.
7. Southern Miss--The Golden Eagles of Southern Miss were 9 points from
a perfect season in 2011 with a 6-point loss to Marshall in game 2 as well as
an inexplicable 3-point loss to bottom-dweller UAB in November. In a continuing
fashion of the top 10 teams, the Golden Eagles must replace a 10000 yard career
passer in Austin Davis. In addition to key players lost to graduation, the
Golden Eagles must break in a new head coach. Coach Ellis Johnson has head
coaching experience at Gardner-Webb and the Citadel but no head coaching work
at the FBS level.
6. Tulsa--The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes are one of the most decorated
teams in the nation to not make it to a BCS bowl game during its existence. Tulsa
is always right on the verge of the top 25 but tend to play a schedule that
limits the chances of going undefeated and playing in an Orange or Sugar bowl.
2011 was the perfect example with 3 games versus top 10 opponents in Oklahoma,
Oklahoma State, and Boise State among their first 4 games of the season. The
Golden Hurricanes ended the season with losses to #8 Houston and one of the
hottest teams in the country at the end of the season in BYU. Tulsa must also
replace a starting quarterback in GJ Kinne who threw for 9472 yards in three
seasons as a starter. Tulsa has a group of quarterbacks ready to take the load
and a system that is extremely quarterback friendly making the Golden
Hurricanes the easiest quarterback transition of the top 10 teams.
5. Arkansas State--Arkansas State was a very surprising team in 2011.
The Red Wolves came out of nowhere to go 10-3 with the first FBS 10-win season
in school history as well as the team's first Sun Belt championship.
Quarterback Ryan Aplin led the team with 3588 yards passing and 588 yards on
the ground but saw things finally come together with a defense that gave up
only 20.8 points per game. Coaching should not be as big of an issue as at
other schools for the simple facts that Hugh Freeze was only there for 1 season
and new coach Gus Malzahn is one of Freeze's best friends. The offense may
differ slightly but Malzahn will base things around Aplin and look to give the
Red Wolves back-to-back Sun Belt Championships.
4. Louisiana Tech--The Louisiana Tech
Bulldogs were 8-5 in 2011 but were so close to a special season last fall. 4 of
the Bulldog's 5 losses were by 7 points or fewer with an overtime loss to SEC
team Mississippi 26-20. After a rough 1-4 start to the season, the Bulldogs won
7 games in a row before losing to a very talented TCU team in the Poinsettia
Bowl. With a non-conference schedule that gets Houston without Keenum, a down
Illinois team, an average Virginia team, UNLV, and Rice; this could easily be a
10-win season for the Bulldogs in 2012.
3. Ohio--The Ohio Bobcats were so close
in 2011 to winning the MAC and having a chance at their first 11-win season in
FBS school history but could not hold a big lead versus NIU. The Bobcats return
all-conference nominee Tyler Tettleton at quarterback for a team that threw for
nearly 250 yards per game in 2011. The Bobcats were +8.4 in point margin and
return key players all over the field. With an opening game at reeling Penn
State and everyone watching, the Bobcats have a chance to gain national
attention in week one. Tricky games versus New Mexico State and at Marshall
come before a conference slate that does not include NIU or Toledo.
2. Boise State--The
Boise State Broncos were one of the most dominant teams in the nation last fall
and came a single missed field from playing for a national championship. The
Broncos have to replace quarterback Kellen Moore and running back Doug Martin
who accounted for 59 total touchdowns as a duo. Moore is gone after setting the
national winning mark for starting quarterbacks with 50 in his career. 2012 is
no ride in the park for the Broncos with a trip to East Lansing to face
Michigan State opens the season. Boise State also faces BYU in week 3 and has a
trip to Southern Miss on October 6. A step back looks likely for the Broncos in
2012, but the locals still expect at least 9 wins for Boise State this fall.
1. Brigham Young--The Brigham Young
Cougars ended 2012 at 10-3 with a win in the Armed Forces bowl over fellow top
10 team Tulsa. The Cougars started badly with losing 2 of three games to start
the season, including a 54-10 loss to Utah. Things changed for the Cougars with
a change at quarterback to Riley Nelson. Once Nelson took control, the Cougars
only lost 1 more game while scoring at least 38 points per game in 6 of the
final 7 games of the season. The Cougars start the season with a game versus Washington State to start the season as well
as games at Utah and Boise State that will test just how good this BYU team is.
The Cougars also face Notre Dame and Georgia Tech on the road in what could be
one of the hardest schedules in the nation.
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