What teams will end up in the Sun Belt in the end?
Appalachian
State, Georgia Southern, James Madison. Backup option of New Mexico State.
Of the 15 teams that
were sent correspondence from the Sun Belt about possible expansion, let's take
a look at the options.
First to be eliminated are Richmond, Missouri State,
Illinois State and Tennessee-Chattanooga. Richmond has the financial ability to
move up but are satisfied with FCS status as evidenced by a recently new 8,700
seat stadium. They would have to expand their stadium to 3X its normal size for
a move to the FBS and that isn't happening. Missouri State has been rumored to
want to move to the FBS level with possible stadium expansions on the horizon
and a solid top 100 TV market. They would have to improve to a solid FCS team
before making the jump. Tennessee-Chattanooga and Illinois State both seem to
be fairly content with staying in the FCS due to the extreme financial toll of
moving up to the FBS.
Next to be eliminated are Jacksonville State, Sam Houston
State, and Towson. Jacksonville State just does not bring in the money that
other schools bring and it would be financially irresponsible for the Gamecocks
to make the jump. Towson looks like a team that would consider the jump in the
next few years but would rather not make the jump into the Sun Belt. They seem
to be more of a MAC team in the shadow of Massachusetts although they do not
have access to a state of the art facility like Massachusetts with Gillette
Stadium. Sam Houston State is in the rare situation of being a very successful
program recently with very little fan support. They would need to show that
they could bring fans to games on a much better basis to have a shot at a FBS
conference berth.
Liberty would then be eliminated due to the over saturation of
a single market with teams that will later be mentioned. Liberty seems to have
the money and willingness to move but the stigma of Jerry Falwell's university
and the location make it a very unlikely scenario for the Sun Belt.
Idaho then
falls to the wayside as they are not only so far away from the rest of the Sun
Belt (2000 miles from Texas State--the most western school in the 2013 Sun
Belt) but their attendance is traditionally one of the poorest in the nation.
Now we get to the
final six teams that are realistic additions to the conference.
Lamar and
Delaware are right on the cusp of invitations to the Sun Belt but have differing
positives and negatives. Lamar would be a great geographic addition as they
connect Texas State to the Louisiana schools being only 132 miles away from
Lafayette, Louisiana. If the Sun Belt want to stay geographically within
reason, then Lamar makes great sense. Lamar's negatives are the relatively
small student base (10,500) and an athletic budget that would need to be
increased if a move to the Sun Belt happened. Delaware is an interesting choice
for the Sun Belt as it is 750 miles from the nearest current Sun Belt team. The
biggest issue for geography would be the inclusion of James Madison as a
connector to the rest of the Sun Belt. The athletic budget, facilities, and
other aspects of the school make Delaware a great team for possible inclusion.
New Mexico State is another team that would not make perfect sense
geographically but might make sense in other aspects. NMSU is a current FBS
team that would not need to make the several year transition that everyone else
on the list except for Idaho would have to make. I feel like they are a backup
plan for the Sun Belt right now.
Now for the ones I
feel are very likely to be in the Sun Belt unless something crazy happens.
James Madison is one of the surprisingly impressive schools that the Sun Belt
could add. The Dukes have some of the best facilities in all of the FCS with a
stadium that is already holding 25,000 but could easily be expanded to 2X the
capacity with the right maneuvering. James Madison would be a nice companion
school to Appalachian State on the east coast giving the Sun Belt exposure in
an area that they haven't been in for years.
Georgia Southern fits the
geographic view of the Sun Belt as well as a stadium that currently holds the
minimum FBS attendance with lots of room for expansion to 30,000-40,000 seats.
The TV market is a slight worry but the Sun Belt has to respect the public plan
that Georgia Southern has made for making the jump as well as the general
excitement surrounding the move.
Appalachian State is what many would consider
the crown jewel of the 15 teams. The Mountaineers are a FCS power that has
averaged 26,094 fans per game which would rank them 2nd in the Sun Belt already.
The number of teams
that the Sun Belt invites depends on if anyone else leaves for CUSA and a
myriad of other factors but if the Sun Belt brings 3 teams, I would expect
Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and James Madison with NMSU as a backup
plan in case any of the three decline or the Sun Belt decides on 4 teams.
2014 Sun Belt:
- Arkansas State
- Louisiana
- Louisiana-Monroe
- Troy
- Texas State
Western Kentucky (CUSA move projected)- South Alabama
- Appalachian State (transition)
- Georgia Southern (transition)
- James Madison (transition)
- New Mexico State
- Texas-Arlington (No Football)
- Arkansas-Little Rock (No Football)
Does the jump to
Conference USA work out in the long run for WKU?
Yes and no.
The move depends on
who you ask. Many in the WKU fan base do not understand the importance of
football in realignment and believe that being a basketball school makes them
different and more attractive. The truth is that football is such an important
aspect that other sports can be more or less ignored if the football part makes
sense.
The current TV deal
for Conference USA is much better than anything the Sun Belt is currently
receiving but it is based on the group of teams that were in the conference in
2011. The current TV deal expires in 2016 and will drop substantially narrowing
the gap financially between the Sun Belt and Conference USA. It is a great
money move for the next 2-3 years but the outlook is cloudy afterward.
The teams that WKU
would be joining are a current group of Sun Belt rivals as well as some rivals
from the past. The team by team talent level will be well below the MWC and MAC
but above the Sun Belt with multiple teams moving up from the FCS rank. The
current question for CUSA teams is loyalty. Teams such as MTSU were openly
pining for Conference USA while still in the Sun Belt. Will it be more of the
same in this new CUSA?
Long run, WKU would be
best fit in the MAC as the southernmost team in the conference but the MAC does
not like WKU as a member. So, for a team wanting to make a move for the sake of
making a move for a quick cash grab, it is the best move for WKU.
Could New Mexico
State and Idaho make it long term as independents?
No.
BYU is the only team
recently from a Non-AQ conference to make the jump to the independent ranks
willingly. The Cougars are a rare exception to the rule with a TV station and
enough independent money to make it work long term.
Using that example,
neither of the teams could make it long term without conference affiliation on
the football field without losing tons of money in the long run. Idaho seems to
be the lesser equipped of the two schools to make it alone and if nothing
happens with the Sun Belt or another conference before 2015, the Vandals may
have to make the tough decision and drop to the FCS ranks until there is
another shot to move up. New Mexico State seems much better equipped to make it
4-5 seasons as an independent with yearly rivals and enough money to absorb
some of the financial losses for the time being. Neither team can make it very
long but NMSU has the better chance of making it until they can get conference
membership.
What team in a Non-AQ
conference has the best shot to make it to a BCS bowl game?
Boise State.
It comes down to a
small group of teams that have a tough but manageable schedule, media appeal,
and national exposure. Last year, Northern Illinois made a BCS bowl game in
part to several factors including less separation from 1-25 and the appeal of
an out of nowhere quarterback breaking records on a national scale. Those
factors in addition to a MAC title game win over another MAC team with only one
loss and nationally ranked gave NIU the chance to plan in the Orange Bowl.
The Boise State
Broncos are the most well known national Non-AQ football squad with the media
appeal, national recognition and exposure, as well as the talent and schedule
to make another BCS run. It helps Boise's cause that they have previously made
BCS bowl games in the past. The Broncos have a high-exposure game starting at
Washington with trips to BYU and Utah State (2 of the top 5 Non-AQ teams)
during the season. Perfect buildup for a BCS type run again for the Broncos.
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