A look at the schools that are overlooked by the ESPNs of the world.


Monday, July 13, 2015

How does Navy stack up offensively and defensively in the AAC?

The Naval Academy is the newest member of the American Athletic Conference and look to immediately compete for a conference crown in 2015. Lets take a look at how the Midshipmen stack up in the AAC this fall.


Offense: 
Navy brings to the take an option attack that is only used by a handful of programs in all of the FBS. The Midshipmen are experts at running the football with a top five national rushing attack that accumulated for 338.1 yards per game. That rushing average beats out the second best rushing attack in the AAC by 147.1 yards per game, a difference that is higher than SEVEN AAC total rushing averages.

As good as Navy is at rushing, it is equally as bad at passing the ball with one of the worst passing attacks in the nation. Quarterback Keenan Reynolds is an adequate passer but is rarely asked to show his ability to throw the ball. As a result, the Midshipmen average 84.1 yards per game in the air. Due to the huge discrepancy between rushing and passing totals, Navy only ranks sixth in the AAC in total offense.

The biggest strength of the Naval Academy football program is discipline. As a result, the Midshipmen are ranked #1 nationally in penalty yards per game with only 24.8 yards per game lost. Since the Midshipmen run an impressive rushing attack and do not commit penalties, the third down conversions rate is very impressive with Navy converting 48.1% of attempts. That number is 24.6% higher than fellow AAC program Temple. The Midshipmen are also excellent in the red zone with an 87.3% success rate. Only Cincinnati and Memphis had a better rate from the AAC in 2014.

Overall, the Midshipmen can score lots of points as evidenced by an impressive 31.8 points per game in 2014, putting Navy fourth in the AAC in scoring offense.

Defense: 
The Navy defense has been attempting to overcome the same dilemma since the bigger, stronger, and faster offensive lines have come into FBS football. That dilemma is how to stop strong rushing attacks with an undersized defense.

Navy struggled in 2014 to stop the rushing game while giving up 198.6 yards per game on the ground. Only Tulsa (214.7) and SMU (235.8) were the only AAC teams worse versus the rushing game. Navy also struggled a bit versus the passing attack with 205.2 yards allowed in the air per game last fall. While that number puts Navy in the top four passing defenses in the AAC, it is also due to Navy not seeing as many passing play due to its struggle to stop the running game.

As a result of the inability to slow the rushing attacks, Navy gave up first downs on 42.9 of all third down attempts. This percentage, more than 12% worse than AAC leader East Carolina, put extra stress on an already cracking defensive front seven. The Midshipmen were able to slow offenses down in the redzone and only gave up points on 78.8% of all trips inside the Navy 20 yard line.

Navy was one of five teams in the current AAC to give up over 400 yards per game with South Florida, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and SMU also in that group. Navy's 403.8 yards allowed per game was over 100 yards more per game than the AAC leading Central Florida Knights. Even with a defense that struggled versus the athleticism and strength of big time FBS programs, Navy still averaged giving up fewer than 30 points per game at 27.3 points allowed per contest, just .1 worse than Cincinnati.

Overall Outlook: 
Navy faced a very difficult 2014 schedule that included Ohio State, Western Kentucky, Air Force, Notre Dame, Georgia Southern, South Alabama, and San Diego State. That totaled to 7 of the 13 opponents going bowling last fall. Due to that incredibly tough schedule, the defensive numbers were skewed as Ohio State, Air Force, Georgia Southern, and Army are four of the best rushing teams in the nation.

By joining the AAC, two of those top rushing attacks disappear from the schedule with a much more manageable schedule on the horizon. Navy can easily play with any team in the AAC and has a schedule that seems ready made for a 10-2 regular season with a bowl berth.

The Midshipmen get more bowl opportunities with the AAC tied to seven bowls in 2015 though the chance of Navy finding its way into the Military Bowl seems very likely this fall.

2015 Season
Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, Ala. – vs. SEC)
St. Petersburg Bowl (St. Petersburg, Fla. – vs. Conference USA)
Miami Beach Bowl (Miami, Fla. – vs. Conference USA)
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman (Annapolis, Md. – vs. ACC)
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu, Hawaii – vs. Mountain West)
Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton, Fla. – vs. MAC)
Cure Bowl (Orlando, Fla. – vs. Sun Belt)

No comments:

Post a Comment