UCF Defeats Auburn: Does That Change The G5 Perception?

The nation watched as UCF went directly into SEC country and took the scalp of an Auburn team that should have won easily on paper. You know… SEC, 5-stars, more resources, and so many other advantages. While the nation saw that result as an upset, those that live and die with the results of the “little guys” saw it coming from a mile away. It’s not like this type of upset has happened in a BCS/NY6 game before, right?

Just since the 2010 BCS Bowls:

• 2018 Peach Bowl: UCF 34, Auburn 27
• 2016 Peach Bowl: Houston 38, Florida State 24
• 2015 Fiesta Bowl: Boise State 38, Arizona 30
• 2014 Fiesta Bowl: UCF 52, Baylor 42
• 2011 Rose Bowl: TCU 21, Wisconsin 19
• 2010 Fiesta Bowl: Boise State 17, TCU 10

The only G5 teams to lose in a BCS/NY6 game during that time were WMU in the Cotton Bowl, NIU in the Fiesta Bowl and TCU in the G5/G5 Fiesta Bowl. There was no G5 representative in the 2012 BCS schedule after an undefeated Houston squad lost to Southern Miss in the CUSA title game.

Outside of the MAC, the G5 representative has been able to hold their own and beat the best of the best in the P5. That isn’t even going back far enough to include wins like Boise State over Oklahoma or Utah over Alabama.

Let’s wait for the P5 excuses. There were injuries, the P5 team saw it as a glorified scrimmage, the G5 team would never hang in the SEC/ACC/Big 12/Big 10/Pac 12, they got lucky, the refs gave them that game. Did I hit all of the excuses or are there more?

While another G5 team winning on a nation stage is awesome and a great feeling for everyone involved, will it change anything long term?

That is a tough question to answer. There are too many factors to look at to pigeon hole an answer that everyone would enjoy. I personally believe that the metaphorical stone has already started its roll down the hill, but not just because of so many big wins. Instead, what I call the Ed Oliver effect is what will change everything long term.

The Ed Oliver effect is a group of prospective players finally understanding that you do not have to go to Alabama or Ohio State or USC to get the attention of the nation. Oliver was a 5-star recruit out of high school that chose Houston and the AAC over pretty much any school in the nation. Never doubting his ability, Oliver will be a rising junior that is also a two-time first team All-American and Outland Trophy winner. He will go in the top five overall after his junior season and become the most anticipated defensive lineman in the NFL since Suh was drafted by the Lions.

Sure, you are asking why Oliver will make more kids stay home or stay away from the P5 when Eric Fisher went #1 overall and nothing changed. Well, this is where things get complicated. We just experienced the first early signing day and things were a little more bumpy than in previous seasons for the big boys. 

Those borderline 3-star players that end up making an impact after getting poached by the P5 are no longer around at such a high rate. They will instead stay with the G5 team that showed them love in the first place and sign in December. Or… we could see the same things that formerly happened in February start to happen in December. This is 17 and 18 year old kids we are talking about.

Also, it is clear to everyone that the NFL will find talent no matter where a player spends his time at college. Kareem Hunt led the NFL in rushing and he went to Toledo, Antonio Brown lead the NFL in receiving and went to CMU, Kevin Byard led the NFL in interceptions and went to MTSU.

NFL starting quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger (Miami OH), Alex Smith (Utah—a G5 at the time), Blake Bortles (UCF), Case Keenum (Houston), Derek Carr (Fresno State), Andy Dalton (TCU—a G5 at the time), Carson Wentz (NDSU), Joe Flacco (Delaware), Josh McCown (Sam Houston State), and Jimmy Garoppolo (EIU) all went to G5 or lower programs. That is 10 of the 32 players in the most important NFL position coming from the little guys. 

Go along any position from punter (Brett Kern/Toledo) to pass rusher (Kahlil Mack/Buffalo) to tight end (Travis Kelce/Cincinnati) and you will find one of the best players at the highest level from the G5 and below.

Later, I will look at the current NFL teams and break down just how many G5 players should make an impact in the upcoming playoffs. A mini G5 primer for the NFL playoffs. 

For those that skipped to the end—the talent gap is getting smaller and smaller, paving the way for a G5 team to finally play in the national title game sooner than we can even imagine. Thank you to UCF for adding another brick to the foundation of the G5 versus P5 argument.