19. Marshall--Marshall was an up and down team that got up to beat Southern Miss, Louisville, and Florida International but failed to beat the top teams they faced otherwise. Marshall has a much easier schedule in 2011 with Virginia Tech replaced by Western Carolina and Louisville replaced by an average Purdue team. With home games versus Tulsa, UCF and Houston, this could be a very good year for the Thundering Herd.
18. San Diego State--The San Diego State Aztecs were hoping for great
things in 2011 with an upperclassman dominated roster. The Aztecs were good
versus the teams they were expected to beat capped by wins over Air Force and
Army. When it came to playing the cream of the crop, the Aztecs could not get
it done losing to Michigan, TCU, Wyoming, Boise, and Louisiana-Lafayette. All 5
of those teams were in bowl games in 2011. Despite the loss of important
players, SDSU should do well with a significantly weakened schedule that
replaces Michigan with Washington and no TCU.
17. Louisiana-Lafayette--The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns were the
surprise team of the Sun Belt in 2011 with a 9-4 record and appearance in the
New Orleans bowl. The Ragin' Cajuns started strong with wins in 6 of their
first 7 games before losing 3 of their final 5 regular season games. UL ended
the season with a last second win versus San Diego State. With non-conference
games at Oklahoma State, home versus Tulane, at Florida, and home versus Lamar:
the Ragin' Cajuns should go 2-2 out of conference. UL does get WKU, FIU, and
Arkansas State at home in what is an interesting season for the Ragin' Cajuns.
16. Utah State--The Utah State Aggies went 7-6 in 2011 with 5 of their
losses coming in a disastrous 2-5 start to the season. The Aggies won their
next 5 games to get to 7-5 with a bowl game versus Ohio. The Aggies lost 24-23
to Ohio to end at 7-6. Utah State lost all 6 games by 10 or fewer points with 2
one-point losses. The Aggies must play better defense after giving up nearly 28
points per game last fall. There are 4 tough games on the schedule (Utah, @Wisconsin,
@BYU, @La. Tech) but 5 games that are almost guaranteed wins. Games versus
Colorado State, San Jose State, and New Mexico State will decide how the Aggies
finish this fall.
15. Fresno State--The Fresno State Bulldogs went 4-9 in 2011 in a
disappointing season that saw long time coach Pat Hill lose his job. Fresno
State was young last fall and look to be the team to make the biggest jump in
2012. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for over 3500 yards in his first year as a
starter and is expected to be all-conference this fall in the Mountain West.
Fresno does have a tough schedule with trips to Oregon, Tulsa, Boise, and
Nevada but should go bowling with a significant improvement in wins
in 2012.
14. Western Kentucky--The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers went 7-5 in 2011
to give the Hilltoppers their 1st winning season as a member of the FBS. The
Hilltoppers were coming off of 0-12 and 2-10 seasons and lost their first 4
games of the season including an embarrassing loss to FCS team Indiana State,
44-16. With an 0-4 schedule in hand and a trip to rival MTSU, WKU came up with
a win in double overtime to start a streak in which the Hilltoppers won 7 of
their next 8 games with the only loss coming to national runner-up LSU in Baton
Rouge. While losing their biggest offensive weapon in running back Bobby
Rainey, the Hilltoppers still return starters all over the field. This could be
the time for the first bowl berth for WKU since its jump to the FBS.
13. Florida International--The Florida International Golden Panthers
went into 2011 as the odds-on favorite to win the Sun Belt. FIU started strong
with three wins before losing 4 of 6 games to put them at 5-4 after the loss to
WKU. Another 3-game winning streak salvaged the season and earned the Golden
Panthers another bowl at 8-4. FIU lost to Marshall 20-10 in the bowl game. This
FIU team is senior oriented and big things are expected out of the Golden
Panthers in 2012.
12. Southern Methodist--SMU started the 2011 season with great
expectations to make noise nationally. Everything went wrong in the season
opener in which the Mustangs were thrashed 46-14. SMU turned things around with
a 5-game winning streak that saw SMU beat nationally ranked TCU in overtime.
The Mustangs again fell to earth losing 4 of 5 games before ending the season
on a 2-game winning streak. The Mustangs have a Texas heavy schedule that
includes 9 of the 12 games in the state of Texas with trips to Baylor, UTEP and
Rice in addition to their home games. This could be a special year for the
Mustangs.
11. Nevada--The Nevada Wolfpack looked good against the bad teams while
struggling against the top opponents in 2011. Of the 6 losses by Nevada, 5 came
versus 2011 bowl teams including Oregon, Boise State, and Southern Miss. The
Wolfpack have an easier non-conference slate that starts with a tricky trip to
underachieving California followed by a home game versus South Florida. If the
Wolfpack can get by those games, the season ending game versus Boise State
could be a game Mountain West game for the ages.
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