Conference Realignment: Part 1, The Sun Belt Conference

With the bowl games being the only thing keeping the WAC from disappearing and the mass movement of teams from one conference to another, let's take a look at the conferences and how they will possibly maybe who knows look in 2013.

Sun Belt Conference:

Established: 1976

Commissioner: Karl Benson

2012: 10 Teams

• Arkansas State
• Louisiana
• Louisiana Monroe
• Florida Atlantic
• Florida International
• Middle Tennessee
• North Texas
• South Alabama
• Troy
• Western Kentucky

2013: 8 Teams.

Lost: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, North Texas.

Gained: Georgia State, Texas State.

• Arkansas State
• Louisiana
• Louisiana Monroe
• Georgia State
• South Alabama
• Texas State
• Troy
• Western Kentucky

There is considerable belief that the Sun Belt may lose more teams and possibly dissolve in the near future but the question becomes how much bigger CUSA can become and is there another conference that would take on any of these teams. Benson and company with the SBC would like to use the 8 teams slated for the 2013 season and build a solid to strong conference with these teams as a basis.

Options:

1. WKU takes a bid from Conference USA or possibly the MAC and leaves the SBC. The most profitable scenario for the Hilltoppers is to follow the mass exodus since last season and try to get the 14th spot in Conference USA. That conference is much more likely than others to take on the extra team in order to even out the divisions at 7 teams per division. The positives include a more lucrative television deal and the name recognition of a, while still Non-AQ, name conference that more people are aware of. The negatives include leaving a smaller but much improved talent base in the SBC for a larger but worse football conference. Of the teams that are joining the new Conference USA from the Sun Belt, only one had a winning record. 
2. Pick up NMSU and Idaho for a short term fix. Benson and his Sun Belt staff may try to take the two teams left out with the dissolution of the WAC and get them to rejoin the SBC for 2-3 years. Both NMSU and Idaho have Sun Belt ties and would get the conference up to 10 teams with a chance to build the SBC into something stronger in the next few years. This arrangement could not work for any longer than 2-3 years with Idaho and NMSU both bolting when a better geographic conference offers (possibly a retooled WAC). Travel and some bad blood between the SBC and NMSU could derail this possibility. 
3. Stay Put for the Time Being. Rather than try to steal other conference members or Independents or  take from the FCS, the SBC may just decide to stick with 8 teams until some of the dust settles and teams decide if the grass is really greener on the other side. It is completely plausible that some of the SBC teams that recently left could end up back in the Sun Belt after a few years away. Probably the least proactive decision other than pulling a WAC and dissolving completely.
4. Consider a Dissolution Process. By far the least likely of all the scenarios with the 8 teams of the SBC all leaving in the next couple of years to join other conferences or becoming independents. This is very unlikely because that would make at least two 14 team conferences and 5-8 independents. The remaining teams that became independent would have a hard time finding a new home with Texas State a better fit for the MWC in the future. 
5. Rebrand themselves as a Football Power Conference. This scenario is very similar to the third choice in staying put but this involves much more money spent and grunt work done on behalf of the conference. The SBC has a great base with Arkansas State, Louisiana, ULM, Troy, and WKU all bowl teams within the last three years. The Sun Belt must secure stronger bowl ties ins that give the conference power rather than the bowls (i.e. Louisiana playing in the New Orleans Bowl for two straight years with Arkansas State winning the conference.) The Sun Belt has a chance to be the 2nd strongest (in terms of quality football ) Non-AQ football conference behind the MAC with the right leadership and moves.
6. Add Teams From the FBS. Appalachian State desperately wants to move out of the FCS and into the "big time". Georgia Southern does too, and is currently in the FCS Semifinals this weekend.
   Both programs are perennial powerhouses on that level and average more fans for home games than most current Sun Belt schools. And their fans are a pretty rabid group that will travel regionally.
   Troy's Athletic Director has lobbied to bring these two schools into the mix, to strengthen the football brand of the conference. That brings the Sun Belt to 10 teams ( in 2014 ).
   IF they get REALLY aggressive, they could bring in 2 HBCU ( Historically Black College and University ) programs with very strong followings, in the form of Alabama State and Tennessee State.
   Alabama State has a brand new 27,500 seat on-campus stadium and would become an instant rival to Troy ( only about 50 miles away ). And that stadium was built to specifically move up to FBS level.
   Tennessee State plays in an NFL stadium ( LP Field in Nashville, home of Titans ) and has a smaller on-campus stadium. They also have a rich football tradition in which the fans travel and follow that team when they're good.
   Both programs averaged over 15,000 a game this year for their home games. And both programs have interest in moving up and getting a bigger piece of the athletic pie on the FBS level. h/t to northclyde for the info.
   

It is my belief that the Sun Belt Conference is not going anywhere but there may be some trying years upcoming for the conference. The SBC is in the right direction with Benson at the helm after Waters running the conference previously. Benson must work with bowls to get a better bowl setup for primary bowls as well as contracts in place to be secondary choices in case the primary choice is ineligible. The conference has other issues in the basketball side (but have ULAR already in the conference and UTA joining) but I focus on football issues. The outlook is sunny in the future but severe thunderstorms in the near future.