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Monday, July 27, 2015

What if the Group of Five had a playoff in 2014? Part 1: The teams

In the ultimate what if scenario, let's look at the Group of Five in 2014 and how a 16-team playoff to determine the best of the best. In the first part of this five part series, we will look at the 16 teams picked for the imaginary playoff and the first round matchups.

The Mountain West Conference led with four invitees (Boise State, Colorado State, Air Force, Utah State), followed by three from the American Athletic Conference (Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida), Conference USA (Marshall, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky), and MAC (Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Toledo), with the Sun Belt (Georgia Southern, Louisiana) adding two, and BYU coming from the Independent ranks. I expect significant controversy about the teams that were included and left out. Some hard decisions had to be made (i.e. Appalachian State) and I feel that this is the best of the group.

Teams are split into four regions with the top team in every region earning naming rights. Top seeds were Boise State, Marshall, Georgia Southern, and Northern Illinois. The Zambrasky regional named after former Boise State quarterback Jared Zambrasky, the Bironas regional named after former Georgia Southern kicker Rob Bironas, the Leftwich Regional named after former Marshall wide receiver Randy Moss, and the Lynch regional named after former Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch.

Zambrasky Regional: 


  1. Boise State: The Broncos are the #1 seed of the entire tournament and deserve that ranking. This Boise State team finished the 2014 season 24th in passing (280.4 ypg.), 31st in rushing (213.9 ypg.), and 9th in points per game (39.7 ppg.). The only negative was a defense not always playing up to its full capability. With a 12-2 record and a win in the Fiesta Bowl over Arizona, the top seed is not in doubt. 
  2. Toledo: The Rockets finished the season as the second best team in the MAC despite not getting to play in the conference title game due to finishing second to Northern Illinois in the west. Toledo had the 60th rated passing game (234.8 ypg.), the 13th ranked rushing attack (256.4 ypg.) and the 20th ranked scoring offense (36.6 ppg.) in 2014. Defense is a question for the Rockets after giving up 30+ points on five occasions (Missouri, Cincy, UMass, Iowa State, Arkansas State). 
  3. Louisiana: The Ragin' Cajuns put up yet another 9-4 season under Hudspeth in 2014 with a second place finish to Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt. Louisiana wads good on the ground with the 24th ranked rushing attack (225.0 ypg.) but struggled in passing with the 100th ranked passing game (191.8 ypg.). Outside of losses to Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, and Boise State, the Ragin' Cajuns only gave up 20 points per game in the other 10 games. 
  4. Western Kentucky: The 16th ranked team of the Group of Five playoff, the Hilltoppers were one of the best offenses in the nation but quite possibly the worst defense in the nation. The Hilltoppers had the 2nd ranked passing game in the nation (374.3 ypg.) and the 6th ranked scoring offense (44.4 ppg.) with the 69th ranked rushing attack (160.3 ypg.) to end with an offense that put up 534.6 yards per game. The only thing to say about the defense is WKU gave up 39.9 points per game, 124th best in the nation. 
Game #1:
#3 Louisiana at #2 Toledo
Game #2:
#4 Western Kentucky at #1 Boise State

Bironas Regional:


  1. Georgia Southern: In their first year in the FBS as a transitional program, the Eagles finished 9-3 with the Sun Belt Title but no bowl berth due to NCAA rules. The Eagles led the nation in rushing with 381.1 yards per game and finished in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense (39.1 ppg.) with a top 30 scoring defense (23.4 ppg.) but the 125th ranked passing offense (107.2 ypg.). Georgia Southern could have easily had a 10-11 win season and were only controlled once all season, a loss to Navy. Georgia Southern is worthy of the #3 overall seed. 
  2. Colorado State: The Rams were a scary team offensively in 2014 with the Grayson to Higgins passing combination that could not be stopped last season. The Rams had the 8th ranked passing game in the nation at 321.6 yards per game and the 32nd ranked scoring offense (159.3 ypg.) as well as a top 50 scoring defense at 25.1 points allowed per game. The rushing game was solid but nothing special with 159.3 yards per game but it was not needed with such a prolific passing game. Struggles down the stretch were a worry for the Rams. 
  3. Louisiana Tech: Credit given to the rest of the G5 that the Bulldogs are only a #3 seed in this regional. Louisiana Tech was extremely balanced on offense with 252.2 yards in the air and 148.6 yards on the ground per game. The offensive balance allowed the Bulldogs to end the season as the 14th ranked scoring offense in the nation at 37.4 points per game. Louisiana Tech also had a top 40 scoring defense that allowed only 24.7 points per game in 2014. Stunning losses to Northwestern State and Old Dominion kept the Bulldogs from pushing for a higher seed. 
  4. Western Michigan: Behind a young stud running back and an explosive passing game, the Broncos got an invite despite finishing third in the MAC West Division. WMU ended the season with the 35th ranked passing game (267.3 ypg.), the 57th ranked rushing attack (170.8 ypg.), the 34th ranked scoring offense (33.8 ppg.), and the 43rd ranked scoring defense (24.9 ppg.). The +8.9 scoring differential was one of the more impressive among G5 programs.

Game #1:
#3 Louisiana Tech at #2 Colorado State
Game #2:
#4 Western Michigan at #1 Georgia Southern

Moss Regional:


  1. Marshall: The most complete team of any in the Group of Five, the Thundering Herd finished the season in the top 20 nationally in each of the big four categories. Marshall had the 18th ranked passing attack (287.3 ypg.), the 8th ranked rushing attack (271.9 ypg.), the #3 scoring offense at 45.6 points per game, and the 18th ranked scoring defense at 21.0 points allowed per game. Questions of a schedule that was set up for dominance were heard with Marshall but a 52-23 bowl win over Northern Illinois proved the Thundering Herd to be one of the top two in the G5. 
  2. Memphis: Maybe not the most fair decision to put the American Athletic Conference in with Marshall but this was the region that made best sense for reasons that will become clear very soon. The Tigers were a surprise of the G5 in 2014 with a 10-3 record and AAC co-championship. Memphis ended the season with the 57th ranked passing game (236.6 ypg.), the 40th ranked rushing attack (190.5 ypg.), the 22nd ranked scoring offense (36.2 ppg.), and the 11th ranked scoring defense (19.5 ppg.). A +16.7 scoring margin was not only unexpected but unprecedented in a conference full of teams like the AAC. 
  3. BYU: My deep down reason for putting Memphis at the #2 seed in this region is to get a rematch of one of the craziest games of the season with Memphis beating the Cougars 55-48 in double overtime. The Cougars finished the season 8-5 but still played well after losing quarterback Taysom Hill to injury. BYU had an offense that finished top 50 in passing (#27/287.7 ypg.), rushing (#49/181.8 ypg.), and scoring offense (#15/37.1 ppg.). The Cougar defense struggled a bit in giving up 27.5 points per game. 
  4. Utah State: The Aggies could have been pushing for a #2 or higher seed if not for the injury to quarterback Chuckie Keeton that stagnated their offense. Utah State finished the season as the #94 ranked passing game (198.7 ypg.), the #51 rushing game (180.1 ypg), and the 81st ranked scoring offense at 26.9 points per game. The saving grace for Utah State in getting to a surprising 10 wins was a defense that gave up only 19.7 points per game in 2014. 
Game #1:
#3 BYU at #2 Memphis
Game #2:
#4 Utah State at #1 Marshall

Lynch Regional:


  1. Northern Illinois: Another season ending in a MAC title for the Huskies is par for the course, but a sense of domination was lost in 2014 with several MAC opponents coming close to upsets. Alas, the Huskies were only upset once in an 11-3 season that saw them finish 17th nationally in rushing (249.1 ypg.) and 50th nationally in scoring offense (31.5 ppg.) The 99th ranked passing game as 192.1 yards per game is a bit of a worry but the biggest worry is a +4.9 scoring margin in 2014. 
  2. Cincinnati: With a former 5-star quarterback at the helm, the Bearcats were one of the best passing teams in the nation in route to a 9-4 season. Cincinnati finished the season 13th nationally in passing at 303.6 yards per game with the 31st ranked scoring offense (34.0 ppg.) and a solid rushing attack that put up 156.5 yards per game on the ground. A defense that gae up 27.2 points per game including 41 to Memphis, 46 to East Carolina, and 31 to Houston is a bit of a worry. 
  3. Air Force: A tricky team for anyone, the Falcons bring a rushing attack that always ranks in the top 10 nationally with 2014 being no exception. Air Force rushed for 273.1 yards per game, good for 7th nationally, while only putting up 145.6 yards per game in the air. A 51st ranked scoring offense (31.5 ppg.) put up just enough for the Falcons to pull out close wins throughout the season. Six games in 2014 ended with a margin of 10 or fewer points. A huge win over Boise State highlighted the schedule. 
  4. Central Florida: A virtual carbon copy to Utah State, the Knights were stingy on the defensive side of the ball but not incredibly impressive on offense. UCF ended the season in the top ten nationally in scoring defense (19.2 ppg.) but could only put up 28.1 points per game with the 59th ranked passing game (235.3 ypg.) and the 106th ranked rushing attack (128.3 ypg). The Knights were on the verge of a 10-win season but a disappointing and confusing 37-29 loss to Connecticut held them back.
Game #1:
#3 Air Force at #2 Cincinnati
Game #2:
#4 Central Florida at #1 Northern Illinois


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